Parties seek advantage in redrawn districts

Friday, Nov. 10, 2000 | 11:25 a.m.

One of the most contentious issues facing the 2001 Legislature will be the fight over congressional redistricting in Nevada, thanks to the expected addition of a third House seat.

It is assumed that the additional seat, the result of Nevada's rapid population growth, will be contested in the November 2002 election.

With the nation's population shifting toward the Southwest, Nevada is one of a handful of Western states expected to gain congressional seats. A third House seat also means Nevada will have five electoral votes in presidential elections rather than the current four.

Congressional as well as legislative districts are redrawn in Nevada every 10 years as the result of the U.S. Census. The state's districts were last redrawn in 1991.

Political observers have already contemplated various scenarios on how the state's three House districts will be drawn. There is much speculation that the final map will include one heavily Republican seat covering the 16 northern counties with the other two seats in Clark County.

The biggest winner under this scenario would be Rep. Jim Gibbons, the 2nd Congressional District Republican, because his party would likely retain its stranglehold over the Northern Nevada seat for at least 10 years.

"Unless someone does something stupid, Republicans could hold that seat forever," said Terry Campbell, president of the conservative Nevada Policy Research Institute in Reno.

Less certain is how the addition of a second seat in Clark County would affect Democratic Rep. Shelley Berkley in the heavily Democratic 1st Congressional District, which covers most of Las Vegas and parts of Henderson and North Las Vegas.

One scenario preferred by Ryan Erwin, executive director of the Nevada Republican Party, would be to have Gibbons represent a portion of northern Clark County along with the other 16 counties. Under Erwin's scenario, Gibbons' district could dip as far south as the northwest intersection of the Spaghetti Bowl.

He said that if a dividing line is then drawn from the Spaghetti Bowl down Las Vegas Boulevard, the Clark County district west of the boulevard and the district to the east would create two politically competitive Southern Nevada House seats.

Erwin said he believes Republicans would rather take their chances trying to win both Clark County seats than create a solid GOP district and a solid Democratic seat.

"Unless you gerrymander the county you cannot have a strong Democratic district," Erwin said. "The Democrats could try to find a way to get a district that is 53 or 54 percent Democrat, but if they do, we'll still knock them off."

But Eric Herzik, political science professor at the University of Nevada, Reno, said the GOP would be better off if they carved a Republican district and a Democratic district in Clark County. That way the GOP would be virtually guaranteed of carrying two of the state's three seats, he said.

"That way your party will always have the majority in Nevada," Herzik said. "Otherwise you're giving up one certain seat to try to get two."

Herzik said that if the Democrats came up with two strong candidates in the Clark districts, the GOP could be left "out in the cold."

But Paul Brown, Southern Nevada director of the liberal-leaning Progressive Leadership Alliance of Nevada, said he believes it would make more sense for Democrats to have one solid Democratic House seat in Clark County, with the third seat split evenly along party lines.

Under that scenario both parties would have a solid Nevada seat and would compete for the third district, Brown said.

Brown's said that scenario makes political sense because the Republicans control the state Senate, but the Democrats have the Assembly. Both chambers have to agree on the revised maps. The maps then have to be signed into law by Republican Gov. Kenny Guinn.

"Redistricting is based on who has leverage at that moment, but nobody has that leverage now," Brown said.

Berkley has not indicated her preference.

"I don't think it would be appropriate for us to comment," said Peggy Egan, who managed Berkley's successful re-election campaign. "It's a process the Legislature needs to go through. It would not be appropriate for her to be included in the process.

"She may certainly have a preference, but she won't have a say in the process."

The congressional district that Berkley represents has 354,966 registered voters, including 168,800 Democrats and 127,028 Republicans.

Gibbons' district has 524,004 registered voters, including 239,403 Republicans and 196,793 Democrats. That leaves the GOP with a statewide lead of only 838 registered voters.

It is never too early to speculate about other potential candidates who may vie for the newly created House seat in Southern Nevada.

The Republican list naturally is topped by state Sen. Jon Porter of Henderson, who lost to Berkley Tuesday by a 52-44 percent margin. There is speculation that he would be a clear front-runner in a district more dominated by GOP-rich Green Valley.

Other Republicans in the rumor mill for a House seat or other high state office include Secretary of State Dean Heller, Controller Kathy Augustine, Treasurer Brian Krolicki, Sen. Mark James, Guinn chief of staff Scott Scherer and former Assemblyman Brian Sandoval, now chairman of the Nevada Gaming Commission.

Up-and-comers on the Democratic side include Clark County Commissioner Dario Herrera, who has served as Democratic Sen. Harry Reid's point man in Southern Nevada and has been given prominent speaking positions at party conventions and rallies.

Other names that have been tossed around include Assemblywoman Barbara Buckley and Assemblymen David Goldwater and Mark Manendo.