Columnist Jon Ralston: Tale of Guinn’s ‘tails, Democrats’ power

Wednesday, Nov. 8, 2000 | 9:12 a.m.

Jon Ralston, who publishes the Ralston Report, writes a column for the Sun on Sundays and Wednesdays. Ralston can be reached at 870-7997 or by e-mail at ralston@vegas.com

A FIRST BLUSH look at the election results yields these observations from Pundit Central:

But Bush's formidable showing in the rest of the state, which is much more Republican, gave the GOP standard-bearer a slight edge statewide. And look at what the Democrats did for Berkley, who many partisans feared could lose on Election Day -- she won by 8 percentage points. And, more tellingly, only one Democratic Assembly incumbent lost -- Gene Segerblom -- and that preserves the party's hammerlock on the lower house and ensures the Democrats will have a robust reapportionment voice come Session '01.

The vaunted labor get-out-the-vote effort paid off in specific and general ways. The AFL-CIO focused its most intense effort in the open Assembly seat held by retiring Kelly Thomas, where a tight contest was expected between Democrat John Oceguera and Republican Frank McClary. But it was a landslide for Oceguera, who won by 15 points. The unions also deserve credit for Berkley's near-landslide victory and the near-status quo in the Assembly. The message: Clark County is still a Democratic bastion.

And, once again, I underestimated Clark County Commission hopeful Chip Maxfield. After expecting him to fall to incumbent Lance Malone in the primary -- he won by 24 points -- I thought he would just fall short in the general to Lois Tarkanian. Instead, he just defeated her by 546 votes. Look at it this way -- I thought he would lose by 2 points and he won by 1 point. So I was only off by 3 points, which is a near-miss. Call it the acceptable Pundit's Margin of Error.