Columnist Jon Ralston: Sum up election in two words: It figures

Wednesday, Nov. 1, 2000 | 9:14 a.m.

Jon Ralston, who publishes the Ralston Report, writes a column for the Sun on Sundays and Wednesdays. Ralston can be reached at 870-7997 or by e-mail at ralston@vegas.com.

Less than a week to go before Election Day and it has all come down to numbers. Actually, these contests have always been more about figures than philosophies, but if it makes you feel better to think otherwise, read no further.

Here are some numbers to think about as Nov. 7 looms:

The same numbers problem has afflicted GOP congressional contender Jon Porter, who has consistently trailed incumbent Democrat Shelley Berkley in fund raising and name recognition. Those shortcomings have left him about 10 points behind in most recent polls, with only a week to go. Even a late boost from the state party, now airing a serious attack ad, probably isn't enough, especially as Berkley seems fortunate enough to be stuck on Capitol Hill and, alas, unable to debate her opponent.

Republicans continue to be happy that they are about even in Democratic Southern Nevada, although those were the same results as in 1998, Democrats point out. But GOP voters have been increasing every day and the party could have a sizable advantage in ballots cast early by the end of the week.

And in 1998, with similar numbers, Republican Kenny Guinn won the gubernatorial race in a landslide, Ensign nearly defeated U.S. Sen. Harry Reid and Don Chairez, who had no right to be close, almost beat Berkley. In 2000 the Democratic ticket is noticeably weaker and the GOP ticket is stronger.

The labor folks, energized by the same national help they had in '98, are confident their Election Day apparatus will still carry Al Gore to victory in Nevada and save Berkley, if not Bernstein. If they don't click on all cylinders, the carnage will be awful for Democrats this year in Nevada.

Ex-Assemblyman Jack Close defeats incumbent Kathy McClain. 27-15.

Jack McClary beats John Oceguera in the race for Kelly Thomas' seat. 26-16.

David Brown erases incumbent Gene Segerblom. 25-17.

Kathy McClelland ousts incumbent Bernie Anderson. 24-18.

Jeanne Simons knocks off incumbent Bonnie Parnell. 23-19.

Mike Davis ekes by incumbent Ellen Koivisto. 22-20.

And then, the coup de grace, the upset special of the year, Libertarian James Dan upsets incumbent Vonne Chowning and votes to organize with the GOP. 21-21.

Now there's a Halloween picture for the Democrats.