Columnist Jon Ralston: GOP hopes in Legislature disassembled

Wednesday, May 17, 2000 | 9:21 a.m.

Jon Ralston, who publishes the Ralston Report, writes a column for the Sun on Sundays and Wednesdays. Ralston can be reached at 870-7997 or by e-mail at ralston@vegas.com.

Oh, were they big talkers a year ago.

The 1999 Legislature was petering out, and Republican operatives could barely contain themselves. Mr. Millennium Scholarships, aka Gov. Kenny Guinn, aka Mr. 75 percent approval ratings, would lead the GOP to the promised land, aka an Assembly majority.

Sure, the Republicans were down by a 2-to-1 margin (28-14) and needed to pick up eight seats to take control. But with the gubernatorial Goliath leading the way, raising money and recruiting blue-chip candidates, a takeover was possible, maybe even probable. And with the Assembly, state Senate and the chief executive, the Republicans would erase the Democrats from the political picture for the next decade by overseeing reapportionment. The Republican Party, so they crowed, was a juggernaut in the making.

Fast forward. End of candidate filing 2000. The Republican Party is instead a joke. And the guffaws you hear are coming from the Democrats, who watched as the once-vaunted recruitment effort produced an army of nobodies, literally and figuratively, and virtually no chance of an eight-seat pickup.

"I'm pretty stunned myself," said one key Democratic insider. Stunned, and trying to stop from laughing.

How pathetic was the Republican effort? The party couldn't get a credible candidate to contend against Democrat Marcia deBraga, who represents a rural area in what may be the most competitive district in the state. deBraga has barely won twice in a row and Republicans once counted that seat as an almost certain turnover. Nice job, folks.

Newcomer Sheila Leslie, a Democrat who could have been challenged in a Washoe County district, is unopposed. What were these Republicans thinking? I know it's hard to get good people to run for these thankless jobs. But after all the bluster, after all the braggadocio, this is what we get?

The Republicans may have erased a state party debt, may have a fearsome Senate candidate and a credible congressional hopeful, but their Assembly chances have evaporated. They may pick up seats, but not enough to take over, barring some kind of cataclysm. Here's a quick analysis:

Adding up all the locks for each side really leaves only eight seats in play -- and I had to stretch to get there. Only three Democratic seats in Southern Nevada are potential GOP thefts -- Assemblywoman Kathy McClain faces former GOP Assemblyman Jack Close; Kelly Thomas' open seat features a competition between former Assembly contender John Oceguera and much-touted GOP hopeful Jack McClary; and Assemblywoman Gene Segerblom confronts another prized GOP candidate, David Brown.

But in all three of those contests, the Democrats have to be considered at least slight favorites. And the Republicans have no one viable in a few other districts where Democrats could have been plucked.

Outside Clark County, at most five seats are up for grabs -- and that may be a stretch. And Republicans are not favored in all of those, either.

It is, quite simply, over. They can't do it, no matter what they say, no matter what their spin is. They have blown it. And they should be barbecued by the faithful.

Who takes the fall? All of 'em. From the governor to his political advisers to Assembly GOP leaders Lynn Hettrick and Barbara Cegavske. It's a true embarrassment, an opportunity squandered.

One end note on the close of filing:

It could be the definition of bad karma. How could Democratic Senate contender Ed Bernstein have felt when he picked up the newspaper to see his opponent, John Ensign, had saved Rebel Mark Dickel's life at the Sporting House. As if he doesn't have enough to contend with.

As more than one wag put it, perhaps Bernstein could match the publicity by suing the Sporting House on Dickel's behalf, alleging a faulty floor.