Columnist Jeff Haney: Lakers look human, but value still elusive

Wednesday, May 17, 2000 | 1:41 a.m.

Jeff Haney's sports betting column appears Wednesday. Reach him at 259-4041 or haney@lasvegassun.com

A funny thing happened on the way to becoming the NBA's next dynasty.

The Lakers had the nerve to look human, even vulnerable at times, in the first two rounds of the playoffs.

That came as a surprise to gamblers who had bet LA down to a 1-5 favorite -- or lower -- to win the NBA championship.

But it was not much of a shock to sports analyst Chuck Sippl, senior editor of the Gold Sheet.

"You have to remember that being a so-called 'overwhelming favorite' means only that most of the public thinks they're going to win it all," Sippl said. "And that was an obvious conclusion to reach, considering the Lakers had the most wins in the league and looked like a dominant team at the end of the regular season.

"If there's one thing we've learned in handicapping sports, though, it's that you have to do it on the field -- or in this case, on the court."

The Lakers have done it so far, getting past Sacramento and Phoenix, but not in the breeze some were expecting.

After Tuesday night's thumping of the Suns, the Lakers are 5-5 against the point spread in the playoffs, 7-3 straight up. They covered the number in two of their five first-round games against the Kings.

Before the playoffs began, there was speculation that if the Lakers were to meet Portland in the Western Conference finals, LA would open as high as minus 400 to win the series.

Those teams will square off in the West, but now it appears that number will be in the 260 to 300 range.

"I think Portland is getting better, and the Lakers still have a lot to prove," Sippl said. "Before we anoint them as NBA champions, remember that LA has never done it before with this particular group of guys. Shaquille O'Neal has never won a title. And Kobe Bryant is only 21 years old."

Even if the Lakers' stock has fallen since the beginning of the playoffs, Sippl thinks it is unlikely they'll present any juicy betting opportunities the rest of the way.

"I think it is difficult to find value with the Lakers for several reasons," Sippl said. "First, they are still a very 'public' team; they always get a lot of support from the betting public.

"Second, they figure to be the favorite in most or all of their remaining games.

"And third, the Las Vegas casinos are close to LA, so there will be a lot of sentimental action from Lakers fans visiting from the LA area."

The Lakers and Trail Blazers split their regular-season series, with each team going 2-2 straight up and against the spread.

In their last meeting February 29 the Lakers, a 3-point underdog, upended the Blazers 90-87 at the Rose Garden.

"Portland has improved since that 'leap day' game," Sippl said. "They're a deep, young team that will give the Lakers some difficulties."

The Lakers do have an edge at center. Historically, 7-foot-3, 292-pound Arvydas Sabonis has had trouble against the 7-1, 315-pound O'Neill.

Sippl and his Gold Sheet colleagues believe the NBA playoffs can be profitable for bettors, despite the "tight" numbers linesmakers post.

"The oddsmakers have been very good with their numbers," Sippl said. "However, we have found some useful trends when it comes to betting both sides and totals. ... We like the playoffs."

The Gold Sheet's website is www.goldsheet.com.

Highlight-show announcers breathlessly inform us that the Royals now have two "walk-off" home runs. Superstation and local broadcasters alike helpfully let us know the home team is trying for a "walk-off" hit when the game is tied in the ninth inning.

After surviving a lifetime without hearing this phrase, baseball fans can't escape it this season. We've had walk-off walks, and even a walk-off balk.

It's reminiscent of a few years ago when "red zone" and "stinger" began popping up on football telecasts.

"Red zone" has apparently become entrenched. It's not uncommon to hear a guy, with some degree of solemness, telling his girlfriend that "red zone refers to the area inside the opponent's 20-yard line." As if it were part of football lore and not a 1990s sports cliche.

"Stinger," a made-up, jock-speak word used to describe a variety of injuries, is OK for locker-room use. But any journalist who uses it is guilty of sloppy communicating. Find out what the injury is, and report it.

The "walk-off" craze also brings to mind "game-winning RBI," a statistic introduced in the 1980s that never caught on with fans. Defined as "the RBI which gives a team the lead it never relinquishes," GWRBI was of little use to anyone.

Another defunct stat of the recent past, the "quality start," was also maligned by purists.

But to sports gamblers who bet on baseball games, quality starts -- at least six innings pitched with three or fewer earned runs -- are in fact quite useful. Most serious handicappers use some version of this statistic in their research.

"WHIP," or "ratio," sounds like an evil stepchild of the fantasy sports movement -- which it is.

But WHIP -- walks and hits per innings pitched -- is also one of the most valuable tools a baseball handicapper has. No serious bettor would handicap a game without it.

This "walk-off" stat, on the other hand, doesn't mean anything to gamblers or to non-betting fans.

Let's hope it goes the way of the game-winning RBI.

Quickly -- before the fabric of our national heritage is torn apart at the seams when someone refers to Bobby Thomson's 1951 Shot Heard 'Round the World as a "walk-off home run."