Study: Monorail may carry 52,500 a day

Adrienne Packer

Wednesday, May 10, 2000 | 11:04 a.m.

After enduring months of bruising reports produced by opponents of a proposed monorail, consultants pushing the project cheerfully released a long-awaited study they believe proves their $600 million project is viable.

Wilbur Smith Associates, an international consulting firm that specializes in transportation, offered a positive review of a previous ridership study conducted by URS Greiner Woodward Clyde.

Wilbur Smith said URS Greiner's findings were reasonable. The study concluded that when the 3.8-mile monorail extension opens in 2003, it will carry 52,500 passengers a day at $2.50 per person.

"The revenue calculations emanating from the ridership forecasts are straightforward and appropriate," the report says.

Ridership numbers put forward by URS Greiner and MGM Grand-Bally's Monorail LLC -- the primary company led by Broadbent Consulting -- have been repeatedly criticized by opposing consultants ranging from individuals to larger firms.

Cam Walker, an executive with Broadbent Consulting, said his company had remained silent about their critic's claims until the Wilbur Smith report arrived Tuesday morning.

The report combined with investment grade ratings expected to arrive next week has Walker and Broadbent confident they will be granted the $600 million tax-exempt state bond they requested.

"Deloitte and Touche said it's viable, the Regional Transportation Commission said it's viable, URS Greiner said it's viable and now Wilbur Smith says we are reasonable and right in our projections," Walker said.

In addition, bond underwriters Salomon Smith Barney Inc. agreed to buy and sell $434 million in first lien investment grade bonds.

"They will guarantee to buy them all because they know the Wall Street community and who's out there," Walker said.

California-based consultant Jon Twichell and Illinois-based consultant Wendell Cox have consistently claimed the monorail will fail, leaving Nevada taxpayers holding the bill for the project.

Both have scoffed at Broadbent's contention that the monorail will be the world's first privately funded public transit system. They said the monorail is not public, it will benefit the casinos paying Broadbent.

The Wilbur Smith report did nothing to sway Twichell's opinion of the project. He pointed to two sentences in the study saying Wilbur Smith cannot comment on the reasonableness of Greiner's ridership number forecasts or trip tables.

"From my perspective, it's saying the same thing we've always said," Twichell said. "It's assumptions, forecasts and projections. They try to negate the history of public transit finance by saying Las Vegas is so unique."

Twichell claimed Broadbent, a former Clark County Commissioner and director of the aviation division, is so influential in Nevada that nobody is willing to truly scrutinize his numbers or plans.

"Broadbent may be good at strong-arming people in Nevada, but he knows nothing about public transit," Twichell said.

Broadbent has heard Twichell's argument before and said it means little to him.

"Cox has historically been opposed to all transit, and it's the same way with Twichell," Broadbent said. "It's how they make their living. That's fine, but I don't have to listen to it."

The proposed 3.8-mile stretch is an extension of the existing monorail that links the MGM Grand to Bally's Paris. The new leg would continue north on the Strip to the Flamingo Hilton, Imperial Palace and Harrah's, then cut over to Paradise where it will stop at the Las Vegas Convention Center, the Las Vegas Hilton and finally at the Sahara hotel-casino.

Cox and Twichell have submitted reports to the state's financial advisers that say ridership will be significantly lower than Greiner's projections.

Broadbent said Tuesday that even if their opponent's numbers are correct, the fare box revenues would be enough to keep the monorail running.

"Even if our opponents' numbers are right, the system will run," Broadbent said. "The bondholder won't get paid, but the system will run."

The Clark County Commission on Tuesday is expected to review the board of directors for the nonprofit agency that will eventually oversee the project. Broadbent and Walker would not divulge the names until Gov. Kenny Guinn approves the list.

It is unclear what Broadbent and Walker's positions will be once the nonprofit takes over, but each said they will not be board members.

Critics have claimed the two will be president and vice president, respectively, reaping hefty salaries for years to come. But the two said they likely will be part of a managerial team, but what their position will be or how much they earn is up to the board of directors.

"I hope they're right," Broadbent said of critics' claims. "But there is no promise of anything to us."

Broadbent and Walker are confident the commission will move forward with the nonprofit agency and project because of the support the monorail has received not only from URS Greiner but Wilbur Smith.

"This is not just the Twichells and not just us, there have been a lot of looks at this," Walker said.

Adrienne Packer covers county government for the Sun. She can be reached at(702) 259-2310 or by e-mail at adrienne@lasvegassun.com.