Columnist Jon Ralston: Guinn’s new subject: fiscal education

Wednesday, May 3, 2000 | 9:45 a.m.

Jon Ralston, who publishes the Ralston Report, writes a column for the Sun on Sundays and Wednesdays. Ralston can be reached at 870-7997 or by e-mail at ralston@vegas.com.

As he began his first State of the State speech more than a year ago, Kenny Guinn was less governor than he was instructor.

Professor Guinn, using slides and charts, meticulously went through the state's balance sheet to explain to the 63 assembled pupils why he had to slice $240 million from the budget. He was didactic, maybe a tad pedantic, and yes, boring as hell. But, as many of the three-score and three big-thinkers wondered who Guinn was to teach them, the governor was underscoring the most important economic lesson confronting Nevada: In the long run, the state cannot continue to fund operations, even at current levels, without running larger and larger deficits.

No single issue is more critical to the state's future. Guinn knew it when he ran for governor -- it's partly why he ran -- and now he's acting on it. On Thursday Guinn will begin the second phase of the strategy he began that night last year when he convenes the Governor's Forum on Fiscal Affairs at the Community College of Southern Nevada on West Charleston.

Oh, yes. It sounds like it should be re-named The Ennui Conference. But as dry as the numbers will be and as mind-numbing as some of the presentations that are scheduled, don't misunderstand what's at stake. With growth on the Strip reaching a plateau and Indian gaming sure to cause a downturn within the next decade, the years of double-digit revenue growth are from another millennium.

Consider: If you project conservatively for the next eight years, estimating a 4.5 percent increase in revenue, with no enhancements to programs and no raises for state workers, by 2008 Nevada will have a $1.5 billion deficit. Even if you bump it up to a more optimistic 6.5 percent, the deficit comes in at about $500 million.

So Professor Guinn will return Thursday, assisted by a team of teachers, ranging from the state demographer to industry experts to legislative number-crunchers. A large audience is expected for what might seem like a snoozefest, but whose goal is admirable and important.

Not only Professor Guinn will be there, though. One of the governor's other personas, Kenny the Coalition-Builder, also will make an appearance as he opens the conference. He will emphasize the openness of the process, the inclusiveness, and the ability on the second day for interested parties to participate in roundtables on various aspects of the state's financial future.

"He won't come out with the answers," said one insider. "We're just going to show everybody the situation we're in."

Kenny the Coalition-Builder has fronted for some fairly thorny issues in the past, from bond proposals to blue-ribbon government panels. But never before has he taken on a project of this magnitude.

And the difference is this time he's not making recommendations to an elected official or the voters. Ultimately, he has to make the decision. The cacophony will begin shortly after Guinn's remarks end on Thursday and the presentation and roundtables begin.

Someone will whisper that the state ought to burrow down under the Clark County Government Center and pilfer some of the piles of money buried there as reserves. Someone else will hiss that it's about time out-of-state corporations, especially banks and retailers, start ponying up to pay their share. And fingers will start pointing all around the room about which group really has money to contribute.

The substance of this issue is manifest. The politics are murky. Guinn cannot please everyone. Gaming, business, teachers, mining, developers and local governments all have different priorities. Oh, did I forget the people?

They don't even know yet what's happening. Not yet. But Professor Guinn is in the house. And as painful as it may sound, it's time to pay attention.