Columnist Jeff Haney: Books, bettors catch Kentucky Derby fever

Wednesday, May 3, 2000 | 9:35 a.m.

Jeff Haney's sports betting column appears Wednesday. Reach him at 259-4041 or haney@lasvegassun.com

Words like "julep" and "spires" have invaded the popular lexicon.

Suddenly, there's more talk about "dosage" in the racebook than in Owsley Stanley's lab.

Must be Kentucky Derby week in Las Vegas.

And local racebooks have plenty going on to mark the 126th renewal of the "Run for the Roses."

"Oh, it'll be going on, all right," said John Avello, director of race and sports operations for Bally's and Paris. "I expect them to start trickling in (today), and by Thursday it should be pretty close to capacity in here through the weekend."

Although Derby futures books closed today with the official post position draw, Avello believes bettors can still find value in the race as post time approaches.

"The Derby can be one of the funnier bets in racing," Avello said. "You just don't know what the odds are going to be. You'll be thinking a horse will go off at 5-1 or lower, and it'll surprise you and go off at 10-1."

For proof, look no further back than last year's Derby. Even in hindsight, it's fair to say Charismatic was an overlay at 31-1.

Besides the usual wagering opportunities, Avello plans to offer patrons an array of special propositions, including:

* Matchup props on every horse in the race.

* An over/under on the official time of the race.

* Which horse will finish last.

* An over/under on the payoff of the winner (likely to be set at about $12.50).

* A "Pick 2" linked to Friday's Kentucky Oaks.

"(And) don't forget mint juleps in Kentucky Derby glasses," Avello said.

As the likely favorite, Fusaichi Pegasus will take a stab at breaking a 21-year-old jinx at Churchill Downs. The last favorite to win the Derby was Spectacular Bid in 1979.

Fusaichi Pegasus, who would give Smoke Glacken a run for the money in the race for worst name (Why couldn't they call him Pegasus II and be done with it?), is coming off wins in the San Felipe and the Wood. Some observers think he will go off at even money, but Avello is not so sure.

"He looks like a heavy favorite, but even money would be extremely low for the Kentucky Derby," Avello said. "If his owner says 'Go for it,' and (his connections) start firing with both hands, I could see him being as low as 7-5 or 6-5."

For the record, Fusaichi Pegasus carries a solid "dosage index" number, which qualifies him as a contender according to those who subscribe to the theory.

Dosage is a numerical evaluation of a 3-year-old's ability to handle the Derby distance of 1 1/4 miles based on pedigree. It ignites controversy every year at this time, although it shouldn't. Like any handicapping tool, it's just that: a tool, one of several to use when examining a race. It's not a magic charm, not a panacea. The 1998 Derby champ Real Quiet, for example, had a weak dosage rating.

Tom Smilanich, race and sports book director at Sunset Station, said he wouldn't be surprised to see Fusaichi Pegasus go off at even money. But he's not about to concede the race.

"I think it's a wide-open field, with a lot of horses who have a legitimate chance," said Smilanich, who's also forecasting a capacity crowd for the weekend. "There's really a lot of interest going into this Derby."

Smilanich has his eye on Aptitude, the A.P. Indy colt who placed third in the Wood and could offer bettors some value on Saturday.

A final note: When Derby futures books opened in January, Fusaichi Pegasus, probable second choice The Deputy, and Aptitude were each 100-1.

* FIGHT RECAP: David Letterman and Lem Banker weren't the only ones who saw a Lennox Lewis victory coming Saturday night at Madison Square Garden.

Late money came in heavy on Lewis in Las Vegas sports books, pushing the champion as high as minus 330 at several Strip properties. Lewis, who knocked out challenger Michael Grant in the second round, had been hovering between 260 and 300 most of fight week.

Letterman called for a second-round KO (a 22-1 proposition, by the way) during a segment with Lewis on his late-night talk show Friday. And Banker, the highly respected veteran sports bettor, gave out Lewis in this space last week. ...

During the pay-per-view telecast of the bout, the TVKO/HBO commentators -- as per their policy -- refused to mention the names of the so-called "sanctioning bodies" that rank fighters and supply championship belts.

Other media outlets should follow HBO's example.

If it's a legitimate title bout -- such as Lewis-Grant -- refer to it simply as a "world championship fight." Don't give the sanctioning bodies any free advertising; maybe they'll go away.

After all, when a drunk runs onto the field at a baseball game, the networks don't give him any air time. And compared to boxing's sanctioning bodies, drunks who run onto the field are upright pillars of society.

The most recent flagrant foul came when Lewis was forced to relinquish one of his belts due to a technicality. That leaves us with a fraudulent "championship" fight between Evander Holyfield and John Ruiz June 10. Unfortunately, this bout will be promoted in some quarters as the real deal.