Columnist Jeff Haney: ‘Fearless forecasts’ meet Las Vegas lines

Wednesday, March 29, 2000 | 9:50 a.m.

Jeff Haney's sports betting column appears Wednesday. Reach him at 259-4041 or haney@vegas.com

Bill Mazeroski is best known as the Pirates' second baseman who sent Forbes Field into a frenzy with a celebrated World Series home run on an October afternoon some 40 years ago.

But Mazeroski also, indirectly, serves as an eminence grise for modern-day baseball bettors -- including many of those bellying up to the counter this week to make futures wagers.

How so?

Mazeroski's annual baseball preview magazine, along with Athlon, The Sporting News, Street & Smith's and a few others, has earned the distinction of mandatory springtime reading for serious baseball fans.

And whether the publishers like it or not, gamblers devour these magazines with an intensity matching that of even the most dyed-in-the-wool SABR member. (Here's betting the publishers do like it, but won't admit it.)

So before you lay 110 to win 100 on the Mariners to win more than 81 games, or jump on the Marlins to win fewer than 65 1/2, you'll probably consult "Maz" or one of his counterparts.

Of course, professional gamblers pay only cursory attention to the preview magazines' predictions. Professional gamblers have a track record of doing quite well on their own predicting the over/under when it comes to total number of wins in baseball.

That's why, in Las Vegas sports books, this wager may one day become as distant a memory as ... well, Forbes Field.

The over/under bet isn't gone yet, though. The Imperial Palace and the MGM Grand have posted numbers for the 2000 season, ranging from 97 (Yankees at the IP) to 64 1/2 (Twins at the IP).

And for recreational bettors, it's fun to compare some of the fearless forecasts of Maz & Co. to the cold, hard betting lines of the Las Vegas Strip.

It's important to remember the sports books' lines are not really predictions; rather, they are numbers designed to draw action on both sides. For example, if the oddsmaker is expecting heavy action on the Diamondbacks over, he'll shade their total up a few wins from their "true" number.

In other words, the mainstream publications' predictions are for entertainment purposes only, while the sports books' odds are for gambling purposes only.

Here are a few comparisons, with an emphasis on top contenders, "public" teams and disparities in opinion ...

RED SOX: A scowling Pedro Martinez graces the cover of Sports Illustrated's baseball preview issue, which promises to reveal "Why the Red Sox Will Win The World Series (Really!)" You can get 8-1 on that at the Regent Las Vegas. (Wonder if the SI "jinx" was factored into the line.)

MGM Grand line: 90 1/2 wins. Imperial Palace line: 90 wins.

YANKEES: Total Baseball Daily predicts 95 wins for the Yanks and says "2000 may be the last stand for this veteran team, which will most assuredly look quite different in 2001."

Veteran baseball writer Bill Madden of the New York Daily News says the Pinstripers will go 96-66, while Diamond Mind Inc.'s computer simulation (diamond-mind.com) says 98 wins.

Athlon and Street & Smith's have the Yankees repeating as World Series champs (a 2-1 shot at the Regent).

Victory totals are basically in line with the Las Vegas numbers.

MGM: 96. IP: 97.

DEVIL RAYS: The computer at Diamond Mind spits out 71 wins for Tampa Bay, indicating a play on the under.

MGM: 76 1/2. IP: 76.

INDIANS: Everyone has them winning the AL Central, and Las Vegas sports books are saying they don't want any more Tribe money by offering just 1-12 on Cleveland to win the division.

MGM: 94. IP: 94 1/2.

RANGERS: Referring to a retooled pitching staff and the departure of Juan Gonzalez, among others, Mazeroski's says "Duplicating (last year's 95 wins) in the face of the mass free-agent exodus won't be easy." Diamond Mind says 90 wins; Madden predicts 88. Those numbers are still higher than the Las Vegas line.

MGM: 86. IP: 86 1/2.

MARINERS: Another example of the forecasters' leaning toward the over. Madden says 89 wins, Diamond Mind 85.

MGM: 81. IP: 79 1/2.

ATHLETICS: Total Baseball Daily predicts a 90-72 mark for the A's, and quotes Oakland slugger Jason Giambi, "We're pretty good at getting our W's, then rappin' a Jimmy-Jack." Despite belting 33 a year ago, Giambi is part of the 6-1 "field" bet at the IP to lead the majors in Jimmy-Jacks this season.

Diamond Mind has the Athletics winning only 80 games, while Madden forecasts a stellar 95-67 season. "The boom is back in Oakland and the A's are a team to be reckoned with," the Daily News reported.

MGM: 84. IP: 83.

BRAVES: Mazeroski's world champs (4-1 at the Regent) were supposed to win 101 games according to Diamond Mind, but that was before the computer learned about John Smoltz's season-ending injury. Madden knew about the injury and still predicted 99 wins.

MGM: 94 1/2. IP: 94.

EXPOS: In the midst of a "take" on the rumored John Rocker trade, radio personality Jim Rome called Montreal "a team that could lose 90 games." That would give them 72 wins, right around the Las Vegas number.

But Sports Illustrated's Tom Verducci, touting a formula that incorporates a team's record in one-run games the previous year and in spring training of the current season, thinks the Expos could improve by 13 to 15 wins. That would put them at 81 to 83 wins in 2000.

He might want to look at the over.

MGM: 73. IP: 71 1/2.

BREWERS: Mazeroski's, Street & Smith's, Athlon and SI all say the Brewers will finish last in the NL Central, and Diamond Mind and the New York Daily News both check in with a very low total of 64 wins. Total Baseball Daily disagrees, forecasting 76 victories, but admits, "The chances of opening Miller Park on the heels of a winning record is far from probable."

MGM: 71 1/2. IP: 71 1/2.

* FINAL FOUR WATCH: In Saturday's semifinals at the RCA Dome, Michigan State is favored over Wisconsin by 8 or 8 1/2 depending on where you shop (total 118), while Florida is minus 4 1/2 or 5 against North Carolina (total 149).

So far in the NCAA Tournament, North Carolina and Wisconsin are 4-0 against the spread with two overs and two unders apiece. Michigan State and Florida are 3-1 against the spread, with three overs and one under apiece.

In Michigan State's three meetings with Wisconsin this season, the Spartans won by 17, five and nine points, covering the spread only once. In those three contests, the teams combined to score 105, 113 and 101 points.