Where I Stand — Mike O’Callaghan: The peacemaking game

Friday, March 24, 2000 | 9:17 a.m.

Mike O'Callaghan is the Las Vegas Sun executive editor.

You have to give President Clinton credit for being an optimist. Attempting to calm the situation between India and Pakistan was merely a warm-up for the meeting planned with Syrian President Hafez Assad this weekend. By now he must realize that the man who butchered thousands of his own people isn't inclined to be Mr. Nice Guy of the Middle East.

President George Bush's secretary of state, James Baker, spent more time courting Assad than he spent with all other world power brokers. Clinton's envoys, and the president himself, have also wasted time trying to get Assad's contribution to the peace process. Assad has made clear that he will get everything he wants, including the Golan Heights, or there won't be peace for Israel on the border of Lebanon. He lost the Golan when attacking Israel in 1967.

At one time the U.S.S.R. was Assad's big brother, and he flaunted that country's power whenever he was in a bind. The Soviets sold him the most modern tanks and aircraft available, but they all met the same dismal fate when attacking Israel. The last time they tangled, the Israelis lost one jet and the Syrians saw 80 of their new Soviet fighters blown from the skies.

Today the Russians have little to offer him, but the arrogance of Assad hasn't diminished. The conduct of Syrian Foreign Minister Farouk Shareh, when meeting with Clinton and Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Barak last year, acted more like a combatant than the maker of peace. So what will be different in Geneva when Assad sits down with Clinton? Probably not much if past history of his conduct is any measure of his present attitude.

In the meantime Israel has been attempting to disengage its troops from the safety zone they occupy in Southern Lebanon. One way or another, Barak has told the world his troops will withdraw this summer. His reward is Syria's threat, through its cat's-paw Lebanon, that guerrilla attacks will continue against Israeli border farms and towns unless Assad approves of the action. The Hezbollah, or Party of God, guerrillas are supplied and controlled by Iran through Damascus. Assad, if he so desires, can shut down their operations at any time.

This week Israel relinquished another 6.1 percent of the West Bank to the Palestinian Authority, which now gives them control of 40 percent of the territory. Little by little the Israelis and Palestinians are working out many problems. Palestinian Minister for Parliamentary Affairs Nabil Amr is worried that Syria intends to continue stirring the pot of discontent. He says that "Lebanon is now threatening Israel with Palestinian refugees instead of Hezbollah" if they withdraw to the south. Of course, the Palestinians say that Assad has little to say about them or their refugees. Amr added, "Only the PLO can speak for the refugees." What Assad would really like to do is to also derail the progress now being made by Barak and Chairman Yasser Arafat.

In the world of diplomacy, often confused with the world of fantasy, there are people who believe it would be wise to do nothing until after an ailing Assad leaves the scene. Others believe that an agreement with Assad won't guarantee a true peace even with the return of the Golan Heights. Some of my friends in Israel believe Clinton has some backwater assurances from Syria that Assad will have something positive to offer. Many also think that Assad's recent Cabinet changes indicate he is ready to be reasonable and will work toward peace.

So what's going to happen in Geneva when Clinton and Assad meet? It will be the world's greatest optimist sitting down with the world's most stubborn butcher. I find it difficult to believe that even a smiling and cheerful optimist can make an impression on a stubborn butcher. That's unless Clinton has a club that will get Assad's attention. If our president doesn't have an attention-getter, don't expect anything lasting or worthwhile to come from their meeting.