Ralston: Ensign, Berkley leads are far from insurmountable

Tuesday, March 7, 2000 | 10:50 a.m.

A poll in the current issue of The Ralston Report shows that John Ensign and Rep. Shelley Berkley "have gargantuan leads" in their races for Congress.

But political analyst Jon Ralston, founder of the 8-year-old newsletter, said Ensign and Berkley are probably as far ahead as they will be between now and Election Day.

"There is no such thing as an insurmountable lead in politics," said Ralston, whose biweekly report since the start of the year has been published by the Greenspun Media Group, publishers of the Sun. "Ensign and Berkley are at their high-water mark. It will only get closer from here."

Of the 800 Clark County voters surveyed last week, 47 percent favored Ensign, a Republican, in the race for Senate, with 27 percent picking his yet-to-announce Democratic opponent Ed Bernstein, according to the poll conducted by Magellan Research for The Ralston Report.

In the poll, Berkley, a Democrat, had a 43 percent to 24 percent lead over Republican state Sen. Jon Porter in her bid to be re-elected to her House seat, according to the report, which was mailed to subscribers Saturday.

While Ralston noted that the findings are not surprising -- many polls show Ensign and Berkley way out in front -- he said polls are popular with the public and early ones create a starting point from which voters can gauge the upcoming race.

"At this point, Berkley and Ensign are sitting pretty," Ralston said. "They have big leads over underfunded opponents. The question is, what are Porter and Bernstein going to do to turn things around?"

Ralston says the underdogs have baggage they will have to overcome. Bernstein is an attorney who regularly advertises on television, which is not popular with a significant segment of the public, Ralston said. But Porter perhaps has it worse than Bernstein.

"No one knows who Porter is," Ralston said. "And to get voters to know who you are takes money."

To overcome such steep odds, Ralston said, Bernstein and Porter need their opponents to make mistakes, and "they will have to go negative -- take apart Ensign and Berkley."

Ralston says polls in publications like his, which is read by thousands of Nevadans, undoubtedly will hurt fund-raising efforts of the underdogs. Still, he says he is "very happy" with the findings of the Magellan survey, which he said are credible.

The poll, which has a margin of error of 4 percentage points, also found that Republican Gov. Kenny Guinn has a 66 percent approval rating and Las Vegas Mayor Oscar Goodman has a 71 percent favorable rating. Just 15 percent of the respondents viewed Guinn unfavorably while 13 percent viewed Goodman unfavorably, the Magellan poll said.

Ed Koch is a reporter for the Sun. He can be reached at (702) 259-4090 or by e-mail at koch@lasvegassun.com