Columnist Jeff Haney: Bettors like Seattle to stay under, Philly to fly over

Wednesday, June 28, 2000 | 9:19 a.m.

Jeff Haney's sports betting column appears Wednesday. Reach him at 259-4041 or haney@lasvegassun.com

The Imperial Palace recently became the first sports book in Las Vegas to post over/under betting lines on the number of regular-season wins for each NFL team in 2000.

In fact -- although several other casinos are expected to release their numbers soon -- for the past couple of weeks the IP has been the only book in the world accepting wagers on this prop.

"It's a pretty popular bet; we've seen very good action on it," IP sports book supervisor Jackson Meeker said. "People like to make a bet like this where they can follow the action all season long."

The Washington Redskins, heavy favorites to win the Super Bowl at 2-1, have the highest total number of wins attached to them, at 12. Bettors must lay a premium of minus 170 if betting under 12 wins on Washington, but can get over 12 at plus 135.

At the bottom of the list are the Cleveland Browns, with a posted total of 4 1/2 wins. Bettors lay minus 150 if betting over 4 1/2 and get plus 120 on the under. Cleveland is a 200-1 shot to win the Super Bowl.

The San Francisco 49ers, longtime darlings of the betting public, have an over/under of 5 wins; the Super Bowl champion St. Louis Rams are listed at 11; and the AFC champion Tennessee Titans are at 10 wins -- all with corresponding money lines.

The most dramatic line moves so far, however, have come on a couple of teams in the middle of the pack.

The Seattle Seahawks opened at 9 1/2 wins, minus 140 on the under, and have been bet all the way down to 9 wins, minus 170 on the under. (The IP generally adjusts the number of wins only when the money line moves past 200 either way.)

And the Philadelphia Eagles have been bet up from 6 wins, minus 130 on the over, to 6 1/2 wins, minus 150 on the over.

"That would indicate we put up at least a couple of numbers that were viewed as wrong numbers by the bettors," Meeker said.

"We did have a disagreement on what number to put up on the Eagles. I felt they had a weak schedule, and will probably win three or maybe even four games in their division. So to get to six you're only talking about (winning) two or three games outside the division."

Even though no one else had put up the NFL over/under prop before the IP posted its numbers, Meeker said the staff was confident in its lines.

"It's really a joint effort between the sports book director, the manager and a couple of the supervisors," Meeker said. "We each make our own numbers, then we set a date when we sit down and argue over them until we come to a conclusion.

"Most of the time our numbers are pretty close, and it's just a matter of working the opinions into the money lines."

Meeker noted that given the NFL's parity, in many cases over/under bettors are being asked simply to predict whether their team will finish above .500.

The totals on more than half of NFL teams opened between 7 and 9 wins.

That's a far cry from over/under wagering in major league baseball, in which win totals range from the low 60s to over 100, leaving plenty of room for wildly divergent opinions -- on both sides of the betting counter.

"In today's NFL, .500 is pretty close to the standard number," Meeker said. "Even so, some bettors will see something differently than us. ... Well, the season will tell whether or not we were wrong."

Some sports books have drawn criticism from fans in recent years for refusing to offer the NFL over/under proposition. Speculation was "wise guys," or professional sports bettors, were beating the prop too consistently, which caused it to vanish from some books.

The Imperial Palace's $500 maximum bet on the prop -- while perhaps too low for the tastes of a few wise guys -- seems a fair limit that splits the action between professional and recreational gamblers, according to Meeker.

"We'll take more from a house player, but we're only taking nickels ($500) from pros," Meeker said.

Anyway, Meeker said, professional bettors have a specific agenda when they attack NFL over/under lines.

"Their objective is different," he said. "Most professionals are betting to try to get a 'middle' later on. For example, they'll make a bet with us, then bet the other side at the MGM when they come out with their lines, trying to hit it both ways.

"The betting public might not be as knowledgeable, but they're actually establishing an opinion on a side when they make a bet."

It's likely, however, that Martin's closing price was much shorter, as most experts are predicting the forward out of Cincinnati to go to the Nets at No. 1.

Chris Mihm of Texas opened at 5-2 to be picked first, and Stromile Swift of LSU was a 6-1 shot. ...

Intertops also released odds Tuesday on which team will trade for Sammy Sosa before the July 31 trading deadline. The Yankees opened as an even-money favorite, folllowed by the Red Sox (6-4) and Mets (8-1). It was 5-1 that Sosa will finish the season in a Cubs uniform.

Soccer bettors give the MGM Grand high marks for not only offering a competitive line on Euro 2000, but also for showing all the games on TV in the sports book. ...

At least one visitor to a Las Vegas sports book was overheard this past week asking for odds on Tour de France cycling.