Columnist Jeff Haney: New ballparks throw baseball bettors a curve

Wednesday, June 7, 2000 | 10:22 a.m.

Jeff Haney's sports betting column appears Wednesday. Reach him at haney@lasvegassun.com or 259-4041.

According to Las Vegas lore, the first baseball over/under bet was made sometime in the early 1960s.

Bookmaker Bill Dark -- who would become known as the father of over/under wagering -- was asked by a customer to set a line on a Dodgers game in which Sandy Koufax was starting.

Dark thought about it and came up with a total of 3. In other words, the bettor could wager that the number of runs scored by both teams combined would be over or under three.

The customer thought about it and bet the under.

The customer won. Koufax pitched one of his 40 career shutouts that day, leading the Dodgers to a 2-0 victory.

It's doubtful even a pioneer such as Dark could have envisioned the state of baseball totals wagering four decades later.

Thanks to the unprecedented explosion of offense in the 1990s, expansion teams with their high-altitude ballparks and watered-down pitching staffs, even rumors of a "juiced" baseball, it's not uncommon to see oddsmakers post totals of 14 1/2 or 15 runs in a game.

There may never be a pitcher quite like Koufax, but there certainly will never be a total of 3 set on a baseball game again.

And the 2000 season brings yet another wrinkle for baseball totals bettors. Three stadiums -- Comerica Park in Detroit, Enron Field in Houston and Pacific Bell Park in San Francisco -- opened this year, prompting gamblers to try to dig up any "over" or "under" biases inherent in the new ballparks.

Early-season media reports painted Enron Field as the majors' latest bandbox -- a cozy, quaint downtown park where the Astros and their opponents were piling up a record number of runs.

Gamblers who do their "research" by watching SportsCenter rushed out to bet the over in games played at Enron.

Which was not necessarily a smart move, says Las Vegas author and handicapper Andy Iskoe.

"As handicappers, we look to go against what the public and the mass media are saying," said Iskoe, who posts betting and statistical information at www.thelogicalapproach.com., his website. "For example, we want to find flaws in what they're saying on ESPN, CNN, etc., and use that to our advantage.

"If you want to know how significant the Houston ballpark's influence is, you have to take a look at how the Astros are performing on the road as well as at home, and how they did last season, in order to put the numbers in some kind of perspective."

Iskoe recently examined the average number of runs scored by and against each of the three teams with new stadiums, at home and on the road, this season and last. Here are the highlights of his study:

That indicates the influence of the new stadium and a decline in the quality of Houston's pitching are both culprits, Iskoe said.

"The effect of the new ballpark in Houston is probably overstated," he said. "Although there seems to be some effect coming from the ballpark, the greater effect is coming from the fact that the Astros' pitching is weaker this season. The bullpen has not performed well, Mike Hampton is gone, and the players who are left have been performing poorly."

Although Iskoe stresses each game should be handicapped on its own merits, he said if anything, bettors should consider going "under" in games played at Enron.

"Because of the publicity surrounding the increased offense in Houston, there may be a time (the oddsmakers) put up an 11 1/2, when it should actually be a 10 1/2," Iskoe said. "As a handicapper, that's the type of situation you look for."

There have been 14 overs and 15 unders at Enron Field in 2000.

The Tigers are scoring one fewer run per game at home compared to last year, but only one-tenth of a run less on the road. Also, Tigers pitchers are allowing half a run per game less at home this year, but 1.1 runs per game more on the road.

"That's where I'd say there's been a dramatic effect," Iskoe said.

Iskoe also noted the Tigers are averaging more runs per game on the road than at home this season.

"Part of that has to do with the Tigers not hitting the ball, period," he said. "But usually teams score better at home. ... I would consider this more of a significant impact."

There have been eight overs and 15 unders at Comerica Park in 2000.

Teams are combining to average 9.3 runs per game at Pac Bell this season, compared to 9.2 last year at 3Com.

The Giants are scoring six-tenths of a run more at home this year, but they are also scoring seven-tenths of a run more on the road, indicating a lack of ballpark influence.

Giants pitchers, meanwhile, are yielding half a run less per game at home, but 1.3 runs per game more on the road. Those figures add up to one conclusion, Iskoe said: It's too soon to tell.

"When it comes to San Francisco, I have yet to get a good feel for this team because they've been so erratic," Iskoe said. "The fact that pitching is somewhat better at home and significantly worse on the road may indicate a slight lean toward an 'under' ballpark. But it's tough to tell with the Giants because they've been so streaky."

There have been 11 overs and 15 unders at Pac Bell Park in 2000.