Columnist Darren Richardson: Nevada among vital states for Gore, Bush

Darren Richardson

Monday, July 24, 2000 | 10:12 a.m.

Darren Richardson is a copy editor for the San Francisco Examiner.

Las Vegas doesn't accept wagering on presidential elections, but if it did, the preconvention favorite would be George W. Bush.

The hypothetical betting line would change throughout the campaign, of course, but at this point the Texas governor and presumptive GOP nominee is well on his way to capturing the 270 electoral votes needed to bookend Bill Clinton's presidency with a couple of Bushes.

The hard truth is that Al Gore, shrewd campaigner and wily tactician that he is, has a daunting task ahead of him: He must win big states where Democrats struggled prior to Clinton's successes. Gore needs Illinois, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Ohio. It's a tall order.

Bush won't carry Massachusetts, for example, and Gore can forget about Wyoming and Idaho. Other states are very much in play now, but won't be by November. A Florida poll issued in early July, for example, shows Gore and Bush in a statistical dead heat. And Bush actually leads Gore in Wisconsin.

By November, things will shake out and Florida Gov. Jeb Bush will deliver 25 Sunshine State electoral votes for his brother (though if Gore taps Florida Sen. Bob Graham for vice president, Florida will be the most interesting state to watch as the race unfolds). Wisconsin voters -- who haven't voted Republican since 1984 -- will go with Gore.

Bush should be able to count on the following states (electoral votes in parenthesis) as a base: Alabama (9), Alaska (3), Arizona (8), Florida (25), Georgia (13), Idaho (4), Indiana (12), Iowa (7), Kansas (6), Kentucky (8), Louisiana (9), Mississippi (7), Montana (3), Nebraska (5), North Carolina (14), North Dakota (3), Oklahoma (8), South Carolina (8), South Dakota (3) Texas (32), Utah (5), Virginia (13) and Wyoming (3). Current estimate: 208. Needed to win: 62 more.

Gore should win California (54). If he doesn't, his loss will be along the lines of the thrashing Michael Dukakis took from George Bush in 1988. Gore should also prevail in Connecticut (8), Delaware (3), District of Columbia (3), Hawaii (4), Maine (4), Maryland (10), Massachusetts (12), Minnesota (10), New York (33), Oregon (7), Rhode Island (4), Tennessee (11), Vermont (3), Washington (11), West Virginia (5) and Wisconsin (11). Current estimate: 193. Needed to win: 77 more.

That brings us to the states most observers consider "in play." They are Arkansas (6), Colorado (8), Illinois (22), Michigan (18), Missouri (11), New Hampshire (4), New Jersey (15), New Mexico (5), Nevada (4), Ohio (21) and Pennsylvania (23).

Polls show Bush leading or competitive in all of these states, but that won't be the case come November. Bush will maintain his lead in and carry Illinois, Michigan, Missouri, New Jersey, Ohio and Pennsylvania, but Gore will prevail in Arkansas, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico and New Hampshire.

That puts the final numbers at 318 electoral votes for Bush and 220 for Gore.

The problem Gore faces isn't so much with Democrats who voted for the likes of Walter Mondale and Dukakis as it is with those who voted for Ronald Reagan. Polls from states like Missouri, Michigan and Ohio indicate most Reagan Democrats are leaning toward Bush.

Unless Bush does something so incredibly stupid that the public comes to see him as a lightweight far out of his league -- and such a gaffe is not out of the realm of possibility -- look for the Republicans to reclaim the White House by at least the 98 electoral votes forecast here.