Where I Stand — Brian Greenspun: This race isn’t over yet

Thursday, Jan. 27, 2000 | 10:09 a.m.

Brian Greenspun is the editor of the Las Vegas Sun.

The nomination process for the presidential race is over.

That's been the conventional wisdom for months, both for the Republicans and Democrats. All that remained between the prophesy and the fact was the primary season, which started this week with the Iowa caucuses and continues with the nation's first primary in New Hampshire just a few days away. What sayeth conventional wisdom, now?

Bill Bradley's effort to upset Vice President Al Gore along the way to the White House in 2001 has captured the attention and the imagination of the media and some party faithful who blame the vice president for allowing President Bill Clinton to move the Democratic Party back toward the sensible center of American thought. If you talk to activists along the East Coast and those bordering the Pacific Ocean, they will tell you that Bradley's chances are not only very good, but that there is little to stop him. They will tell you that despite the drubbing their candidate took in Iowa when he failed to get 40 percent of the vote.

There may be some reason to believe that Bradley's fight will spring to life in New Hampshire and carry him toward the nomination later this summer, but I am hard pressed to understand what that is. You see, I have been a believer in the conventional wisdom as it relates to Mr. Gore since he first announced his intention to announce his run for the presidency. I based my belief on the knowledge that he is probably the single most qualified person in the race -- on either side -- to do the job and that the primary voters would recognize that as time and his efforts wore on.

As for the race for the Republican nomination, the conventional and every other kind of wisdom has declared that Texas governor George Bush is not only the man to beat but the man who cannot be beaten, especially by those who have thrown their hats in alongside his 10-gallon entry. In this regard, I have to admit a bit of foolhardiness because, while I should believe with everyone else, there is a part of me that refuses to accept that this particular race is over.

The reason has more to do with those who will be voting for or against him along the way to the GOP nomination than it does the governor himself. Most of the people I know who know him say he is OK -- although significantly less substantive than the current resident of 1600 Pennsylvania Ave. So the issue is not with Mr. Bush. Not yet. The problem turns upon those who will demand so much that the majority of voters may turn away from him come November.

This is not a new phenomenon for the Republican Party. It started with Ronald Reagan and came to a head in 1996 when Sen. Bob Dole tripped all over himself and his running mate in an effort to play the game all ways. It is, by now, an old saw but a sharp one. It is called the fundamentalist right wing of the Republican Party and, no matter how you look at it, it is the proverbial 800-pound gorilla.

Now, before some readers get out their ugliness and hurl it my way, this is not an anti-religious writing that those who don't or won't read through this might conclude. To the contrary, religious beliefs have long been one of the foundational elements to a progressive society in which the rule of law and a belief in right and wrong reign supreme. But, contrary to a growing effort in this country, I don't believe that the religious thought of some should determine the religious and secular thought for all.

As devout as Al Gore is in his personal life, I have never believed that he wants to impose his particular religion on other Americans whose religious practices and beliefs may differ. That doesn't mean there aren't general principles upon which we can all agree, because that is easy to accept. But it does mean that there are specific interpretations about which some deeply religious people may differ. And if America stands for anything, it is that our democracy is not about requiring some people to believe as others just because a majority of the voters may want it that way.

As far as Gov. Bush is concerned, it is still too early to tell how he separates his religious beliefs from his secular commitment to an American democracy that, at its core, makes room for a myriad of differing beliefs and practices. The truth of that statement was borne out in the Iowa caucuses Monday night.

For as much as the Bush camp would have us believe that he met expectations and carried the day -- which he did in raw numbers -- the pudding-sized proof came in the numbers of voters who aligned themselves against the affable son of former President George Bush.

Gov. Bush picked up 41 percent of the vote amongst a crowded field which had probably the most qualified aspirant, Sen. Orrin Hatch of Utah, receiving only 1 percent of the vote. Normally, getting a plurality that large slams any door that might have stayed open for an opponent to push his way through. But, in this case, it is appropriate to look at who didn't vote for the front-runner before we jump to conclusions.

If you look at the candidates who wore their religious fundamentalist qualifications on their sleeves in that race, and add up the votes they received, it is clear that 45 percent of the "most conservative" votes went against the front-runner. That could be a big number when the GOP hopefuls turn southward -- where more people vote their religion than say, in New Hampshire -- in search of primary votes. For almost 20 years, I have contended that the Republican primary process is controlled by those who want to push national policy based on religious priorities, which makes many people -- once comfortable in the party of Abraham Lincoln -- decidedly uncomfortable.

Assuming I am right, for George Bush to capture the hearts and minds of the people who run the primary process, he will have to move ever rightward, the way Bob Dole had to do but couldn't with any conviction in the last election. If he doesn't say what they want to hear, an intense but active minority of Republican voters will rally behind one or more of the other candidates and all the money in the world, which he has, won't let George do it. Or, worse yet, they will bolt behind Pat Buchanan's ugly effort to move into the White House on the wings of reform.

This race ain't quite over yet. Perhaps not for Vice President Gore and certainly not for Gov. Bush. Onward to New Hampshire.

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