Columnist Jeff Haney: NFL playoff wagering is a whole new ballgame

Wednesday, Jan. 12, 2000 | 10:03 a.m.

Jeff Haney's sports betting column appears Wednesday. Reach him at 259-4041 or haney@vegas.com

If your winning percentage picking NFL games against the spread this season resembles Ty Cobb's lifetime batting average, take heart.

Likewise, if you've been hitting at a professional-caliber .600 clip, don't rest on your laurels.

When it comes to wagering on the NFL, the playoffs truly are a second season, which means a fresh start for football bettors.

"You've got to have a different handicapping style from the one you used in the regular season," said Chuck Sippl, senior editor of the Gold Sheet. "You can't handicap based on season averages or point spread records, because teams change so much throughout the season.

"Instead, you have to focus on how a team matches up against a very tough opponent, and remember that those yards are going to be much harder to come by in the playoffs. I put a greater emphasis on coaching, matchups, balance and the ability to make plays -- not what happened during the regular season."

Injuries are another major factor to consider in Saturday's playoff matchups between the Jaguars (minus 8 1/2) and Dolphins, and the Buccaneers (minus 5) and Redskins.

Banged-up quarterback Mark Brunell will probably play for Jacksonville, but standout offensive tackle Tony Boselli is among several Jaguars who will miss the game. The Redskins could be without starting running back Stephen Davis.

"It seems like most teams have a key player either out or questionable," Sippl said. "An important thing to keep in mind is that injuries usually make it more difficult for the favorites to cover, if the injured team is the favorite, than the other way around."

That means the Dolphins could be worth a look, particularly if, as Sippl warns, Brunell's formerly explosive talent is fading.

"Brunell has had so many injuries that he's not the same quarterback he was a few years ago when he led the Jaguars deep into the playoffs," Sippl said. "He was much more of a scrambler then, but tends to remain in the pocket a lot more now."

Gamblers and non-betting fans alike are expecting plenty of scoring in Sunday's NFC game between the Rams (minus 7) and Vikings. So too are bookmakers -- the over/under on the game is 52 points, among the highest NFL totals of the season.

"One basic theory that I follow is that the oddsmaker is not stupid," Sippl said. "High totals tend to go over and low totals tend to go under. They set this total high, but that's because they're trying to capture the tenor of the game. Both teams have a lot of firepower."

The Gold Sheet can be reached at (800) 798-GOLD and is online at www.goldsheet.com

* FANTASTIC FINISH: The term "bad beat" is without a doubt the most overused phrase in Las Vegas' poker rooms -- but sports book frequenters have been known to wear it out, too.

On Saturday, however, bettors holding tickets on the Bills were crying "bad beat" -- and this time they had a legitimate gripe.

When the Titans returned a kickoff for a touchdown using a desperation lateral with three seconds left for a 22-16 victory, they not only won the game, but covered a spread that ranged from 4 to 5 1/2 points.

Until the "Music City Miracle," as the play has come to be known, it looked as if Buffalo backers had done an admirable job handicapping the game.

"The scoreboard tells the story, but it really was a miracle cover," said Sippl. "It was one of the most bizarre, unlikely, unpredictable plays you could ever imagine."

The line did hit 6 briefly, but Bills backers snapped that number up as soon as it appeared. If any bettors had Tennessee minus 6, they surely were wondering why the Titans neglected to go for the two-point conversion after the final touchdown, considering a turnover cannot be run back for a score on a two-point play in the NFL.

A more pressing question is why anyone would have taken Tennessee minus 6 rather than shopping around for a better number.

The Titans, 5 1/2-point underdogs Sunday against the Colts, figure to go one of two ways: Either they're due for a letdown after such an emotional finish, or they'll use the "Miracle" as a confidence-builder.

Sippl leans toward the latter.

"It can only be a positive for them," he said. "After coming back to win like that, they'll believe they can pull anything off."

* SILVER STREAK: The Las Vegas Silver Bandits of the fledgling International Basketball League are on a roll both straight up and against the spread.

On their recently concluded road trip, the Silver Bandits won seven straight games and covered the spread in six of those victories. The Imperial Palace sports book posts a line and total on each Silver Bandits game.

Bandit backers aren't just padding their bankrolls, they're also taking advantage of a situation that's unique in professional sports: the ability to place a legal wager on a game, then go to watch the contest live, all without leaving the city.

To its credit, the league supports this arrangement.

"The IBL does not have a problem with it; in fact, the league thinks it helps increase interest in the games," said Tim Neverett, director of communications and broadcasting for the Silver Bandits.

"We had discussions with the IBL before the season started, and their attitude was 'What is it going to hurt?' They realized that wagering on sports is part of the lifestyle here, for residents and visitors alike, so they had no problem allowing it."

The contrast between the IBL's outlook on wagering and the NBA's couldn't be starker. When Mayor Oscar Goodman met with commissioner David Stern last year to explore the possibility of bringing an NBA team to Las Vegas, league officials said they would consider it -- if Nevada sports books prohibited wagering on all NBA games.

(Of course, even the stodgy NBA seems reasonable compared to the geniuses who plan to eradicate college basketball betting by passing a federal law. But that's another story for another day).

The Silver Bandits host Cincinnati tonight at the Thomas & Mack Center.

* ON THE LINKS: So far, no one has posted a proposition on Tiger Woods' breaking Byron Nelson's record of 11 straight tournament victories (Woods is at five and counting).

But Jeff Sherman, golf specialist at The Resort at Summerlin sports book, does have a sheet full of other Tiger props, including: odds to win the 2000 Masters (3-1), the 2000 U.S. Open (4-1), the 2000 British Open (4-1) or the 2000 PGA Championship (4-1).

Bettors can also wager on how many majors Woods will win this year: zero (2-3), one (even), two (4-1), three (20-1) or all four majors for a Grand Slam (50-1).

Woods is a 4-5 shot to win any major this year. And the over/under on the number of PGA Tour wins by Woods in 2000 is set at 4 1/2, minus 115 either way.