Gates’ vision of electronic future debated at CES

Thursday, Jan. 6, 2000 | 11:17 a.m.

Consumers may not be ready to buy Bill Gates' vision of homes and cars full of devices linked to computers and the Internet, technology consultants say.

Gates, the chairman and chief executive of Microsoft Corp., spelled out his vision Wednesday at the Las Vegas Hilton to open the 2000 Winter Consumer Electronics Show.

Gates said the convergence of entertainment and technology and the connectivity of dozens of devices is speeding society to higher levels of comfort. Gates also said he's convinced that convergence doesn't mean fewer companies will be in on the change.

"The pace of innovation has never been so rapid," Gates said.

But experts who advise businesses on technology aren't sure some of the innovations Gates envisions will be demanded by the public anytime soon.

"I think he's really looking at the future, several years," said Michael Marriott, executive vice president of IT Strategies International, a Las Vegas-based consulting firm that advises businesses and government on technology and software needs.

"While the kind of stuff Gates is talking about is a little ways off," Marriott said, "you can see he's trying to get people's minds set on what's possible."

Gates and Microsoft employee Steve Guggenheimer took more than 2,000 CES delegates through an on-stage "house tour" that included a personal computer control system, an interactive entertainment center, a "Pocket PC" with multiple portable uses and a car-based information system.

Gates demonstrated how an entertainment center not only could incorporate high-quality digital games with speedy graphics, but also interactive play-along games with television shows.

"Imagine the benefit to a show like 'Jeopardy,' " Guggenheimer said while participating with televised contestants of the popular show. "Producers of the show could offer prizes to players at home or even choose the next series of television contestants with interactive versions of the game."

The Pocket PC -- which Gates announced was the renamed update of the Windows CE operating system -- signals Microsoft's strategy to produce software that can be used in a variety of connecting devices.

"It's quite an important announcement," said Tim Bajarin, president of Creative Strategies Research International, Campbell, Calif. "The Palm Pilot (a popular hand-held device developed by 3Com Inc.'s Palm Computing Inc.) is eating Microsoft's lunch."

Bajarin said about 6.5 million Palm Pilots have been sold over three years compared with 750,000 Microsoft hand-held devices.

"Microsoft is redoing its operating system environment to be more competitive in these really portable devices," Bajarin said.

Microsoft officials say they aren't getting out of the software business, but are putting a new emphasis on making electronics products do more. The company believes its foundation in software will position it to enhance products that can process data and connect to the Internet or other devices.

But competitors are stepping up their own efforts. Some analysts say the non-PC appliance business will grow to an $8 billion industry by 2002 and companies like Sun Microsystems, which developed the Java programming language, Sony Corp. and America Online are trying to get a commanding lead in their own respective markets.

But Marriott remains unconvinced that the hand-held computer will be used by enough consumers to make it a big seller.

"You see municipalities ordering tons of Palm Pilots to communicate with each other and to update schedules," Marriott said. "I can see their possible use by utility companies, for meter readers who don't want to lug around a laptop.

"But the portables are the standard of the industry. They give people the ability to use spreadsheets while they're sitting at airports. That's something you're probably not going to do with a Palm Pilot. And, as far as the at-home consumer, I'm not sure how many people will really want to use them."

Gates said the Pocket PC as well as the car-based system can receive e-mail from wireless sources, just like digital telephones. The car system is equipped with software that reads e-mail to the user to minimize on-the-road distraction.

Gates said Microsoft is announcing a partnership with Barnes & Noble Inc. to deliver books -- both print and audio versions -- that can be downloaded into hand-held devices for reading while traveling.

He said music also will continue to be a growing Internet business with more and more sites offering digital downloads of music to develop personalized play lists. The Pocket PC is capable of receiving and storing music for later playback.

Gates predicted that music-lovers eventually would abandon their compact discs just as they switched from record albums when they discover the ease of music downloads.

But Marriott remains skeptical.

"There are all sorts of legal debates raging about it now," Marriott said. "Things like copyright and royalties and the rights to music. And you don't think record stores are going to stand by and let the entire music industry go to these download companies without a fight."

Guggenheimer also showed a "sonic box," a device that allows music stored in a hand-held computer to be downloaded to any set of speakers in a house or to a car-based system.

He also demonstrated a video editing system that will be available in PCs that will allow users to do on-screen editing of videos and upload them to a website to be viewed by family and friends who could access the site.

Guggenheimer said with compressing technology, 23 hours of video could be stored in a gigabyte of disc space.