Columnist Jon Ralston: Malone has deck stacked against him

Sunday, Feb. 13, 2000 | 8:36 a.m.

Jon Ralston, who publishes the Ralston Report, writes a column for the Sun on Sundays and Wednesdays. Ralston can be reached at 870-7997 or through e-mail at ralston@vegas.com.

County Commissioner Lance Malone may be the luckiest politician alive. He's like a poker player who has his cards face-up, revealing a busted hand. But the others at the table have either folded, or they don't have enough money to stay in the pot because they went up against each other in previous deals.

So despite having nothing but the highest stack of chips, Malone rakes in the pot.

It's not like he isn't trying to lose his money -- or in this case, his elective job.

Malone was considered a near-lock for re-election until only two weeks ago, despite his involvement with an airport concession scandal midway through his term.

He had campaign cash ($400,000), a solid base (Sun City) and seasoned consultants (Kent Oram, Steve Wark, the Paladin Agency).

Then he accomplished the impossible: He not only created a defining issue to defeat him (neighborhood casinos), he also provided the dumbest quote since his Airportgate dissembling. ("All an elected official has sometimes is his word -- and this time I'll have to back off my word.")

In addition, he managed to incense a significant segment of the one group that has the wherewithal to fund an opponent (gaming). That's quite a three-of-a-kind.

And yet the payoff may be elusive for those who hope to take him out of the game. That's because despite the target-rich environment Malone has provided, there is trepidation that both Chamber of Commerce boss Bob Forbuss and School Trustee Lois Tarkanian may get into the Democratic primary (along with who knows who else).

If both Forbuss and Tarkanian run -- and both want to very badly -- they could expend too much money trying to defeat each other and fold in the general.

This is immediately frustrating to those -- notably other gaming companies that see the neighborhood casino as competition -- seeking to oust Malone.

That's because one gaming outfit conducted a poll 10 days ago that showed Malone is a commissioner just waiting for an ex- to be affixed to his title.

The survey of 400 voters in his district, overseen by former national pollster Lance Tarrance, showed less then 50 percent of voters have a favorable impression of Malone.

And 37 percent of voters would give a new person a chance while only 31 percent say they would vote today to re-elect Malone.

When presented with Malone's statement explaining his decision to change his vote, 57 percent said they can't trust him.

The poll, which has a margin of error of 5 percent, found that after voters had been informed about the neighborhood casino issue, 83 percent would either consider another candidate or definitely not vote for Malone.

And, remember, this survey didn't even ask voters how they felt about Malone's involvement in Airportgate.

In elemental terms, Malone is a political cadaver just waiting for the gravedigger. But who will bury him?

Most knowledgeable observers believe Forbuss, who has friends across partisan and special interest spectra, would be much more formidable than Tarkanian.

One Democrat was blunt: "Lance is hoping it's Lois. It's his best chance to save himself."

Tarkanian has the name recognition and public office that Forbuss lacks. But she also has some enemies, most importantly Steve and Elaine Wynn, thanks to the detritus from the Jerry Tarkanian-Robert Maxson basketball wars at UNLV.

Could Forbuss beat Tarkanian if both ran? Maybe.

But he may not run if she does, which is why there is an all-out effort being mounted to dissuade her, including phone calls from Democratic Party leaders.

The next few weeks will be critical for Malone, who reportedly has redoubled his grass-roots campaign to try to counter the scathing publicity.

This will be a true test of the depth of his support.

One observer speculated that the minute it appears Malone is vulnerable, those deserting him will go from "a drizzle to a flash flood."

But the commissioner still has the money, and he will be voting on major donor applications for the next nine months, which is an incentive for potential givers.

And unless the Democrats coalesce behind a candidate -- Forbuss might even be favored against Malone -- the incumbent's run of luck almost surely will continue in November.