Columnist Jon Ralston: A pundit’s predictions for 2001

Saturday, Dec. 30, 2000 | 2:13 a.m.

Jon Ralston, who publishes the Ralston Report, writes a column for the Sun on Sundays and Wednesdays. Ralston can be reached at 870-7997 or through e-mail at ralston@vegas.com.

Somehow the Oracle of Henderson doesn't have quite the same resonance as the Oracle of Delphi.

But if it's good enough to launch a thousand Hyundais (of course) and house a new state college (what's your position on that again, governor?), then it's good enough to cogitate about the political future. And if Delphi was considered by the ancient Greeks to be the center of the world, how appropriate to foretell what's to come from what is now the center of Southern Nevada -- don't tell that to Mayor of the Universe Oscar Goodman, but just ask the third district congressional wannabes where the focus will be next year.

I also have learned something else from my Delphic predecessor, who was known to change predictions when circumstances warranted. So consider the following my predictions for 2001 -- until I see fit to re-evaluate. The pundit's prerogative has not changed, no matter the millennium.

Local:

1. All four members of the Las Vegas City Council up for election will retain their seats. Councilman Michael McDonald will leave fingerprints in most of the races.

2. The state Ethics Commission will find McDonald guilty of ethics violations. He will go to court. The pressure of parallel state and city ethics probes will prove too much by year's end. He will not be in office one year from today.

3. Clark County Manager Dale Askew will leave the government by mid-year. He will be replaced by ex-staffer Thom Reilly. (Didn't I predict this last year, too?) By the end of 2001, Reilly will be wondering about his sanity.

A few short locks: Clark County Commissioner Mary Kincaid will chair the convention authority board. Ex-Councilman Steve Miller will not disappear. Goodman will announce that the city has made a "historic leap forward." He will not, in public or private, express admiration for McDonald.

State:

1. Gov. Kenny Guinn, despite his allusions in his '99 State of the State speech, will not address changing the state's tax structure in his '01 version. His re-election advisers will trump his conscience -- at least for now -- and he will not make any bold statements. But events of the session will overtake his plans as the gamers try to push a business tax through as an alternative to the teachers' initiative. Guinn will have to take a stand.

2. State Senate Minority Leader Dina Titus will give a farewell speech at the end of the session as a prelude to a run for the Clark County Commission next cycle. But she will soon be drawn to other possibilities, including governor and Congress.

3. The Legislature will expand its membership to accommodate northern and rural lawmakers fearful of losing their seats. It will be seen as a Southern capitulation.

A few short locks: Goodman will not be able to keep his impact fee promise as lawmakers will reject his ideas. Speaker Richard Perkins and Majority Leader Barbara Buckley will diverge on a controversial issue. There will not be a special session.

Federal:

1. In two of the biggest surprises since the gaming industry's opposition to Joe Neal's tax strategy, Clark County Commissioner Dario Herrera and state Sen. Jon Porter will announce their intentions to run for the U.S. House.

2. An NCAA betting ban bill will pass both houses of Congress and be signed into law by President Bush. Then the fingerpointing will begin.

3. A Yucca Mountain bill will pass both houses of Congress and be signed into law by President Bush. Then the fingerpointing will begin.

A few short locks: Harry Reid and John Ensign will have a major blowup or two, but will work well together. Bush will make some kind of anti-gaming statement. Jim Gibbons will put out more news releases than any other member of the delegation.

Miscellaneous:

Goodman will make it clear that he has no plans to run against Guinn -- the Democrats will have no viable candidate by year's end and someone (I don't know who) will use the word "anointment."

Commissioner Erin Kenny will float her name for attorney general and governor. The Las Vegas Sun will become a morning newspaper, Channel 3 will do hard news stories and "Las Vegas ONE" will have higher ratings than "Ally McBeal."

Hey, even oracles can dream.