Columnist Jeff Haney: Motivation can be key to bowl betting

Wednesday, Dec. 6, 2000 | 10:02 a.m.

Jeff Haney's sports betting column appears Wednesday. Reach him at 259-4041 or haney@lasvegassun.com

It's a tried-and-true approach, but one that should continue to serve college football bowl bettors well: Determining which teams are highly motivated -- and which are not.

Each year, bowl bettors scramble to pinpoint games that match a disappointed team, possibly ripe for a letdown, against an excited overachiever that's just happy to be there.

The betting line offers value to the excited -- and therefore highly motivated -- team, or so the thinking goes.

For example, inevitably each season a supposed national championship contender suffers a few upset losses, falls out of the title picture and ends up a two-touchdown favorite in something like the Bluebonnet Bowl.

If sharp bettors are really lucky, that disappointed team will be paired against a young upstart that would love to cap its season with a bowl win -- any bowl win.

The play, of course, is on the underdog.

With 25 bowl games to choose from, gamblers can always find at least a couple of these soft spots.

Determining motivation is not a simple, one-step process; it carries its share of subtleties.

But here's an easy way to get started: Using the preseason over/under line on total number of regular-season wins, look at which teams overachieved (and should be fired up for a bowl appearance) and which teams underachieved (and could suffer a letdown).

Using that standard, here's how some of the nation's major programs could approach their bowl appearances:

Disappointed?

Nebraska: Behold this year's Spalding Guide example of an underachiever.

The preseason line on Nebraska's win total was 10, with a hefty premium of minus 150 on the over, so the team's 9-2 record qualifies as a disappointment.

Experts had them penciled in for an unbeaten season and an appearance in the Jan. 3 Orange Bowl, so a Dec. 30 berth in the Alamo Bowl has Bluebonnet written all over it.

The Huskers are 14 1/2 to 15-point favorites in Las Vegas sports books over a Northwestern team that finished a very legitimate 8-3.

Kansas State: Not only did the Wildcats finish 10-2 in the regular season, falling short of the preseason line of 10 1/2 wins, they also lost to Oklahoma in the Big 12 title game (considered postseason for wagering purposes).

A 10-3 mark heading into the Jan. 1 Cotton Bowl doesn't stack up to the undefeated season some were predicting. And you can file their opponent, Tennessee, under "Just happy to be here in a New Year's Day bowl."

K-State is favored by 3 1/2 to 4 1/2 in local books.

Highly motivated?

Texas: The Longhorns won their last six games -- covering five -- to finish 9-2, exceeding the 8 1/2 wins attached to them on the preseason line. It figures they'll want to keep the hot streak going in the Dec. 29 Holiday Bowl.

Opponent Oregon, meanwhile, technically tied Oregon State and Washington for the Pac-10 championship, but missed out on the marquee bowl games associated with that conference.

Texas is favored by 6 1/2 to 7 in local books.

Florida: The Gators (8 1/2 wins on the preseason line) won nine regular-season games and the SEC title game to bring a 10-2 record into the Jan. 2 Sugar Bowl.

The catch is, they're matched up against another highly motivated opponent in ...

Miami: The Hurricanes went 10-1 to soar past the over/under total of 8 1/ 2 wins (premium of minus 130 on the under).

And if they get the opportunity, Miami won't hesitate to run up the score -- just as it did in its regular-season finale against Boston College -- in order to make a good showing in the various rankings and polls that serve as fraudulent substitutes for a true national championship competition.

Miami is favored by 5 1/2 to 6 points in local books.

Oklahoma: In the most dramatic shellacking of the preseason number, the Sooners went 11-0 in the regular season to breeze past the posted total of 7 1/ 2 wins, minus 160 on the under.

When the Imperial Palace became one of the first sports books in the world to post a line on the Orange Bowl just before Thanksgiving, Oklahoma was installed as an 8-point underdog. Currently the line is 11 1/2 to 12 1/2 in Las Vegas. Perhaps that's because like Florida, the Sooners have caught another motivated foe in ...

Florida State: With 11 wins, the Seminoles only matched their preseason over/ under total.

However, a probable No. 1 spot in the polls figures to serve as a strong motivator.

And, if Miami happens to clobber Florida the night before, FSU will likely be inspired to run up the score itself, given the opportunity.

Although we won't know whether it even exists until late on Jan. 2, that could be the most powerful angle of the entire college football bowl season.

This week he'll take a look at the Redskins minus the points, and the Jets plus the points.

Follow Hensgen's progress on the Hilton board under "The Game" and online at www.thegame-nfl.com.

In the Stardust invitational, Dave Cokin went 3-3-1 to edge Brent Crow (2-4-1). At 9 p.m. Friday, radio personality Papa Joe Chevalier squares off against blackjack expert Stanford Wong in a semifinal. ...

In the Don Best tournament, veteran local oddsmaker Jimmy Vaccaro went 5-2 to edge Las Vegas handicapper Bubba Youngblood (4-3). This week's matchup airs at 4 p.m. Thursday on KRLV 1340-AM.