Columnist Dean Juipe: Risks aside, take Vargas in upset win

Dean Juipe

Friday, Dec. 1, 2000 | 10:58 a.m.

Dean Juipe's column appears Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday and Friday. His boxing notebook appears Thursday. Reach him at juipe@lasvegassun.com or 259-4084.

It's always risky picking an underdog to win a big fight.

That's especially so when the underdog has only one major fight under his belt. And the risk ratchets up a few more notches when the betting favorite is in his athletic prime, has never lost a fight, has participated in 18 world-title bouts and has beaten three Olympic gold medalists including at least two future members of the Hall of Fame.

But, periodically, you have to take some chances. You have to stick your neck out.

I'm doing it by predicting Fernando Vargas will beat Felix Trinidad when they fight Saturday night in the Mandalay Bay Events Center.

The big money isn't in yet but bettors thus far prefer Trinidad, keeping him a minus 170 favorite. Vargas is a plus 150.

Trinidad is a deserving favorite. He's 38-0 and has conquered a number of well-known fighters, including former Olympic champs Pernell Whitaker, Oscar De La Hoya -- each of whom is destined for the Hall of Fame -- and David Reid. A world champion since 1993, Trinidad routinely handles competent opponents such as Hector Camacho, Oba Carr and Freddie Pendleton.

He just doesn't lose.

But that doesn't mean he never will, and Vargas is easily the most likely man to get the better of him now or in the foreseeable future. Actually, it could be argued that if Vargas can't beat Trinidad maybe no one ever will.

Vargas, 20-0, is more than four years younger than Trinidad and has only one eye-catching win on the books, a decision over Ike Quartey earlier this year. He has five other victories in world-title fights and was scintillating in dispatching both Yory Boy Campas and Raul Marquez but less than overwhelming in struggling with Winky Wright.

Even the most perceptive boxing fan is entitled to some doubts about Vargas, particularly as it pertains to the fight at hand. Will the inherent pressure of the situation get to him? Will his relative inexperience keep him from nailing Trinidad? Will his quick temper get the best of him and cause him to lose his cool?

These are legitimate concerns, ones Vargas has been unable to dispel thus far in his career for the simple reason that he has never faced a challenge like this.

But I think he'll respond with his best performance.

While he's in jeopardy of getting caught by a big hitter, Vargas may have the upper hand in pure strength. Not to shortchange Trinidad's punching power but Vargas is more of a banger; on a percentage basis he'll throw more big shots than Trinidad, who is sneaky strong as much as anything.

Trinidad lands a lot of blows but isn't always throwing bombs. Vargas, conversely, is thinking knockout most of the night.

But the real issue here and the deciding factor in picking Vargas to win is Trinidad's chin. It's his weak link.

Trinidad has been on the floor a half-dozen times and even the undistinguished Kevin Lueshing and Anthony Stephens have sent him sprawling. While he has always recovered and rallied to win, this time his opponent has a mean streak.

This time he's up against a younger man who figures to be relentless. This time Trinidad will lose.