Editorials: Forecast for gaming worrisome

Monday, Aug. 28, 2000 | 10:22 a.m.

The conventional wisdom of Wall Street analysts has been that Indian gaming in California will hurt Reno, but the impact on Las Vegas won't be nearly as severe. But a gaming expert from Nevada is providing a much different assessment, suggesting the consequences could be significant even in Las Vegas -- especially for those casinos located downtown. William Eadington, director of the Institute for the Study of Gambling at the University of Nevada, Reno, said last week that the Las Vegas Strip could see a 10 percent to 15 percent decline in business and downtown casinos could suffer a 20 percent to 30 percent drop if the tribes are allowed a total of 113,000 slot machines.

Currently there is a dispute as to how many slot machines will be allowed. The California governor's office insists the maximum permitted will be 45,000, but Eadington told a meeting of the Association of Gaming Attorneys that California legislative analysts believe the tribes are entitled to 113,000 machines. Other analysts contacted by the Sun still believe that the Las Vegas Strip, in particular, would be able to weather the additional California slot machines given that the Strip's billion-dollar casinos easily offer much more than the tribes possibly could. That view may ultimately prevail, but Eadington's insight should be taken seriously.

One of the weak links in getting tourists from Southern California, which is Las Vegas' biggest market of gamblers, has been the congestion along Interstate 15 between Los Angeles and Las Vegas. The lack of enough lanes can produce gridlock on weekends, and if there is an accident on the interstate, a bad situation can be made even worse. So if Southern California gamblers think that their time could be better spent in a casino, rather than stuck in bumper-to-bumper traffic for several hours on I-15, they just might go to a nearby tribal casino in their home state instead.

If there still are casino executives and elected officials who are in a slumber over the potential for California tribes to siphon customers, it is hoped that Eadington's analysis wakes them up. The opulent Strip casinos will continue to lure visitors from all over the world. But ensuring that the critical Southern California visitors keep coming is another matter -- and that means a redoubling of this region's efforts to get more travel lanes along I-15 to keep these customers happy.