Decline seen in Lake Mead water levels

Monday, Aug. 21, 2000 | 11:36 a.m.

Federal officials are seeing the first signs that Lake Mead water levels may dive over the next couple of years.

By the end of September the lake is expected to drop to 1,197 feet, about 8 feet lower than at the beginning of the year.

A federal report released last week forecasts Lake Mead's level next summer will be almost as low as it was in 1992. Little rain or snowfall this year and next could cause the lake to dip to 1,184 feet, a 13-foot drop, the Bureau of Reclamation predicts.

The falling levels are most evident in the Colorado River upstream from Lake Mead. It usually runs at 14,000 to 30,000 cubic feet per second at this time of year, but July's flow rate was only 8,000 cubic feet per second, Lake Mead National Recreation Area Ranger Thane Weigand said.

Four boats have hit sandbars since the last week in July. One boater was killed because of the lower water flows, Weigand said.

Colin Hoagland, 57, of Meadview, Ariz., died when his boat struck a sandbar along the Colorado on July 23. Speed could have contributed to the accident, lake officials say.

The falling water levels come just as the seven Western states, including Nevada, that rely on Colorado River water reached an agreement on the water's use that could further affect Lake Mead's level.

The guidelines are designed to help wean California over the next 15 years from annual surpluses of Colorado River water it has depended on since 1995. A key point of the plan allows Lake Mead to be drawn down 8 feet to provide extra water if needed.

Southern Nevada water officials are confident that future water supplies for the Las Vegas Valley will not be affected.

It is "not impossible, but highly unlikely" that Southern Nevada will suffer from lower lake levels, Southern Nevada Water Authority General Manager Pat Mulroy said.

The river and the lake rely on snow and rainfall from Wyoming, Colorado, Utah and New Mexico for healthy flows, she explained.

"Unless the hydrology really goes in the toilet and there is no snowpack" Southern Nevada will have plenty of water for the first half of this century based on the proposed river management plan, Mulroy said.

Even if the river continues to drop over an extended dry spell of 10 years or more, local water officials would have plenty of advance warning about how much will flow into the lake. In case of a long-term drought, cities would receive water first, followed by commercial users and agriculture, she said.

Under the federal plan, the states could meet water demands for at least a year or more, even in an extended dry spell, Mulroy said.

And the Las Vegas Valley's drinking water intakes are at 1,050 feet and 1,000 feet respectively -- well below the 1,197-foot level expected by the end of next month -- so even if the lake drops as much as the bureau predicts by next summer, or more, Las Vegas taps will keep flowing.

The Bureau of Reclamation forecasts Colorado River flows and the lake's level for up to two years at a time. The bureau updates the information each month.

The predicted drop is not the lowest level Mead has reached in the past decade. In September 1992 the surface dipped to 1,174 feet, bureau spokesman Bob Walsh said.

"That's typical of Lake Mead to change like that," Walsh said.

During winter and spring months Lake Mead fills from rain and snowfall upstream. Then demands from seven Colorado River Basin states lower it during the summer and fall.

In 1995 and 1996 Mead rose again because of rain and snowfall in winter, Walsh said.

While the lake could fluctuate dramatically over the next year, the National Park Service is already posting warnings to boaters and swimmers about possible impacts from a drop, National Park Service spokesman Bert Byers said.

While the river has run swift and deep until this year, sandbars are forming as the flow slows down.

"If boaters are going to be haphazard or devil-may-care, they may encounter these sandbars," Byers said.

On the other hand, the bureau's prediction may prove wrong, he said.

"The big variable in all of this is Mother Nature," Byers said.