Columnist Ralph Siraco: Here’s a real upset: Spa favorites are winning

Ralph Siraco

Monday, Aug. 14, 2000 | 10:40 a.m.

Ralph Siraco's horse racing column appears Monday, and his Southern California selections run Tuesday through Friday. Reach him c/o Las Vegas Sun, 800 S. Valley View Blvd., Las Vegas, NV 89107.

Each year when the racing scene shifts to the summertime spas of Saratoga and Del Mar, most handicappers switch gears from their normal handicapping philosophies.

Saratoga and Del Mar have gained reputations as havens for long shots. Or, at least, for producing higher percentages of pricey payoffs than other tracks. When racing goes to the spas, favorites often go out the window.

This phenomenon has been so consistent that many racing fans have come to know Saratoga as the "graveyard of favorites." And Del Mar baffles even the most avid horseplayers each year.

Saratoga historically has seen the superstars of racing falter on its upstate New York track.

The great Affirmed was disqualified from the 1978 Travers; John Henry and three-time horse of the year (1974, '75, and '76) Forego both lost there. The great "chocolate soldier," Exterminator, who won half of his 100 starts in a career that spanned from 1917-1924, lost at Saratoga. Triple Crown winners Count Fleet (1943) and Citation (1948) never found success there, either.

On the other hand, Colin, who retired unbeaten in 15 career races, did manage to win at Saratoga in 1907 and 1908; and the great gelding Kelso, a five-time horse of the year (1960-64), was 4-for-4 at the spa.

But the two greatest horses of the 20th century were beaten at Saratoga.

Man O' War, possibly the greatest racehorse of the century, lost the only race of his outstanding career at Saratoga in the 1919 Sanford Stakes. His loss was so shocking, the name of the horse that beat him -- Upset -- has become synonymous with stunning victories.

Another upset at Saratoga occurred in 1973. Secretariat, who was often compared to Man O' War, lost in the Whitney to a horse called Onion.

But that was then and this is now.

A funny thing happened on the way to the graveyard this year: Favorites are winning.

And they are winning at a much higher rate than in years past. In the first two weeks of the six-week Saratoga meeting, 37 of 100 races have been won by the favorite. This is a trend that has carried over from the recently concluded Belmont Park spring/summer meeting, where the winning percentage of favorites was also unusually high.

Saratoga's current 37 percent rate is higher than the national average of between 32 and 33 1/2 percent.

A check of the jockey and trainer standings reveals some trends worth following for the rest of the spa session, which ends Sept. 4.

Jockey Jerry Bailey, who had a stellar Belmont meeting, leads Saratoga jockeys through Sunday with 19 victories from 81 mounts for a high average of 23 percent. Jorge Chavez is second with 18 from 91, Pat Day is third with 14 of 83 and Robbie Davis sits fourth at 12 of 54. Davis has the second-highest overall average of 22 percent.

Davis leads all jockeys with maiden-race wins at 8 of 23 (35 percent), while Bailey is 4 of 26 (15 percent). Shane Sellers has been most successful with claimers, leading that category with 5 of 16 (31 percent), while Day has the same amount of claiming winners from 18 rides.

It is no surprise that Bailey leads in allowance-race victories with 10 of 31 (32 percent), and in stakes races with 2 of 10 (20 percent). In the 2-year-olds division, Davis leads with 6 wins from 13 rides (46 percent). Chavez is 4-for-12 (33 percent) with first-time starters.

Among trainers, Todd Pletcher leads the pack with 8 wins from 33 starts (24 percent), with H. James Bond at 6 of 17 (35 percent), Mark Henning at 6 of 25 (24 percent) and Neil Howard at 5 of 10 (50 percent).

Frank Alexander leads trainers with maiden wins at 3-for-3. Richard Dutrow Jr. has 2 of 3 with a runner up effort and Bond is 4 of 6 with two seconds.

Bill Mott leads in stakes victories with a 2-1-1 mark from four starters, and Pletcher, the meet's overall leading trainer, has a lone stakes win in six tries.

At Del Mar, handicappers have always resorted to a wide variety of excuses for upside-down form, ranging from the tide levels to the sea air.

The most recent blockbuster upset "where the turf meets the surf" came in the 1996 Pacific Classic. That year the great Cigar had reeled off a modern-day record 16 consecutive victories -- equaling Citation's run in 1948 (the mark was tied by Hallowed Dreams this year).

Cigar came to Del Mar to try to break the mark in the Pacific Classic. But Dare And Go outran Cigar to the shock of a record Del Mar crowd.

But that was then and this is ... well, you get the drift.

After the first two weeks of the 43-day Del Mar stand that comes to an end Sept. 13, favorites are winning at an incredible 40 percent rate.

That's right -- 34 of 86 races have produced winners who were the betting favorite.

Victor Espinoza is leading the Del Mar jockey standings with 17 victories from 93 mounts (18 percent). David Flores, who is the defending champ, is second with 14 wins from 83 starts (17 percent). Alex Solis is tied for third with the world's winningest jockey, Laffit Pincay, Jr., at 11 wins while Southern California's top apprentice jockey, Tyler Baze, sits fifth with 10 wins.

Bob Baffert, who has won the last three Del Mar trainer titles, is well on his way to No. 4 as his charges have already accounted for 11 victories in 38 starts (29 percent). Bobby Frankel, a five-time Del Mar champ, has won 7 of 17 (41 percent) for second in the standings. Bill Spawr, a two-time Del Mar leader, is tied for third with Mike Mitchell, who has won six Del Mar titles, at five wins apiece.

Perennial Northern California leader Jerry Hollendorfer has three wins and three runner-up efforts from 15 starters.

At both summer resort tracks, at least for now, favorites are running right over the ghosts of summers past.