What if this cargo had been nuke waste?

Mary Manning and Diana Sahagun

Thursday, Aug. 3, 2000 | 3:41 a.m.

As thick plumes of black smoke were spewing into the air after Wednesday's gasoline tanker truck accident, the words "nuclear waste" and "nightmare" crept into some high-level conversations.

While this time the accident on U.S. 95 was limited to gasoline, the fears of Las Vegas residents regarding highway shipments of high-level nuclear waste were very much on the minds of government officials.

This is because in April a state-funded computer analysis calculated what would happen if a gasoline tanker caught fire after slamming into a truck hauling high-level nuclear waste.

The computer, programmed with all of the specifications for trucks that may someday haul nuclear waste through Southern Nevada, showed that radiation would escape and that there would be at least 200 deaths from cancer and 9,000 people treated for a variety of medical complaints resulting from the leak.

About 1:45 p.m. Wednesday, tandem tankers loaded with gasoline burst into flames between the Flamingo Road and Tropicana Avenue exits on southbound U.S. 95. One person was seriously injured in the accident caused by another truck's blown tire.

But it didn't take long for the ultimate nightmare to take shape in people's imaginations as they thought about what it might mean for the Las Vegas Valley if Yucca Mountain -- 90 miles northwest of Las Vegas -- is approved by Congress as the nation's repository for high-level nuclear waste.

The Las Vegas Beltway, U.S. 95 and Interstate 15 would be likely routes for trucks hauling the waste to Yucca over a 30-year period.

Some Clark County officials watching Wednesday's 90-minute blaze from their office windows said they were thinking, "This is the nightmare."

What they feared most, what constituted the nightmare in their minds, was a projection a few years into the future, and a scenario in which a truck hauling a canister filled with nuclear fuel rods was next to the tandem tanker truck after it caught fire.

Fred Dilger, a planner for the Clark County Nuclear Waste Division, was one of those watching the smoke.

"Wednesday's accident is the nightmare accident for us," Dilger said.

In Carson City, attending a nuclear waste technical review board meeting, Bob Loux also could think of no word more fitting than nightmare.

Loux, when told of the accident and asked about the valley's potential as a transportation route to Yucca Mountain, said, "It is our worst nightmare,"

Loux is the director of the Nevada Agency for Nuclear Projects. This agency provides independent oversight of the Department of Energy's studies on Yucca Mountain. Congress will evaluate the DOE's studies as well as any rebuttals offered by Nevada before making a decision on whether to open Yucca Mountain in 2010 at the earliest.

Dilger was pointed in predicting what will someday happen if Las Vegas Valley roads become a transportation route for high-level nuclear waste. A nightmare is simply inevitable, he said.

The computer analysis was completed in April by Nevada transportation consultant Robert Halstead. In addition to the cancer deaths and other medical emergencies, the analysis concluded the immediate cost of such an accident to be $1 billion.

Informed of Wednesday's accident when the Sun called him at his home in Wisconsin, Halstead said, "It is unfortunately a realistic scenario because of the traffic and the weather patterns."

In the computer analysis, a nuclear waste truck northbound on Interstate 15 slams into an overpass column at 60 mph at the Blue Diamond turnoff. Seconds after the crash, a gasoline tanker crashes into the wreckage and bursts into flames.

The analysis also has two dozen cars and three tractor-trailers colliding in a chain reaction south of the Blue Diamond turnoff. Unlike in Wednesday's real accident, emergency vehicles in the computer model cannot reach the accident, and the fire burns out of control for more than two hours.

In a real nuclear emergency, the model shows, there would be massive panic and confusion, delaying emergency vehicles. Also, response to the scene would be delayed because officials would first have to set up a perimeter to monitor the extent of the radiation.

Both truck drivers and a nuclear waste escort die in the computer-generated accident. The computer projected about 200 people would eventually die from exposure to the leaking radiation and more than 9,000 people would receive medical attention.

"And I toned down the scenario when other experts said it was too gory," Halstead said.

The Department of Energy also created a computer model, this one projecting what might happen if a truck hauling nuclear waste drove off the road and crashed. In this less spectacular accident, the DOE calculated that five people would eventually die of cancer and 1,000 people would be exposed to a non-lethal level of radiation.

Residents near the accident scene Wednesday expressed concern that they would have to be evacuated. Dilger said if radioactive waste had been involved, the residents would have had a lot more to worry about.

"There would be health concerns, there would be straight radiation concerns," Dilger said. "Chances are, they would get a measurable but not necessarily lethal dose.

"They should be worried about that."