Columnist Jeff Haney: Week 1 offers hungry NFL bettors a full plate

Wednesday, Sept. 8, 1999 | 9:34 a.m.

Jeff Haney's sports betting column appears Wednesday. Reach him at 259-4041 or haney@lasvegassun.com

Football bettors analyzing Week 1 of the NFL season will find a juicy revenge game for the Vikings, a tough test for the highly touted Jaguars and the Lions sans Sanders.

But the best matchup of the week could come Monday night, when the Broncos host the Dolphins at Mile High Stadium.

"It's the defending Super Bowl champs against Jimmy Johnson's ego, and it doesn't get any bigger than that," said Nick Bogdanovich, sports book director at the Stratosphere hotel-casino.

The Broncos are a 6 1/2-point favorite at the Stratosphere, although 6 has been seen around town.

Coach Dennis Green and the Vikings are looking to avenge a 30-27 overtime loss to the Falcons in last season's NFC championship game. Minnesota was an 11-point favorite in that contest, and is favored by 4 Sunday.

Jacksonville is a 5 1/2-point favorite against the aging 49ers -- for years a "people's choice" franchise.

"Everybody seems to think Jacksonville's the best team this year, and they start off against 'Frisco," Bogdanovich said.

The Stratosphere installed the visiting Lions as a 9-point underdog against Seattle -- this was after Barry Sanders surprised the NFL by retiring -- and Bogdanovich said the line hasn't moved.

"It sounds weird to say, but I wouldn't be surprised if the Lions turned out to be better without (Sanders)," Bogdanovich said. "Their entire offense revolved around Sanders, so maybe this will give (wide receivers) Herman Moore and Johnnie Morton a chance to show how talented they are."

* HUSKERS DO: This past weekend, Nebraska backers beat the sports books, betting the Cornhuskers from a 22-point favorite all the way to 28 and cashing in when Nebraska beat Iowa 42-7.

"Iowa couldn't get a first down if you spotted them nine yards," Bogdanovich said. "The public was saying Nebraska is back, and they were right."

Bogdanovich said his book recovered nicely when San Jose State covered a 28-point number against Louisiana State. LSU opened a 25-point favorite at the Stratosphere, and bettors kept pounding away on the favorite.

"San Jose went down and fought them tooth-and-nail in Baton Rouge," Bogdanovich said. "That game helped us out a lot."

* BEAR OF A LOSS: In the misleading final score department, Boston College edged Baylor 30-29 Saturday when a Baylor extra-point attempt went wide left in overtime.

Baylor, a 4-point underdog, did cover. But an argument can be made that the so-called smart money caught a lucky break while Eagles backers took a bad beat.

Baylor scored two second-quarter touchdowns on freak turnover plays -- a fumble recovery in the end zone and an 83-yard interception return. BC outrushed Baylor by a whopping 350-110 margin.

An axiom of football handicapping says a team that can outrush its opponent by 2-1 or more is a good play to cover the spread. And there are bettors who keep an eye out specifically for misleading finals, hoping to score some extra value the next week.

Normally, those bettors would play against Baylor or on BC this Saturday. In both cases, they'll have to wait a while to use their newfound knowledge, at least in Las Vegas sports books.

Baylor takes on UNLV Saturday and, as usual, the Rebels' game is off the board in Nevada. (One "underground" line has Baylor an 11 1/2-point favorite, down from an opening line of 13.) BC has an off week before playing Navy Sept. 18.

* THEY'RE OUT: Among the few observers who shed a tear when 22 major league umpires lost their jobs last week were gamblers who bet baseball totals according to the tendencies of the home-plate umpire.

A small but zealous group, these bettors keep tabs on how umpires fare against the posted total, reasoning that umps with small strike zones favor hitters and therefore the "over." Likewise, umps with large strike zones show a bias toward the "under."

But when the umps walked out, a season's worth of data went with them.

In fact, bettors lost three of baseball's best "under umps" in Bill Hohn (7 overs, 18 unders in games he worked the plate this year), Eric Gregg (4-9) and Mark Johnson (6-12). Still around are solid "over umps" such as Charlie Reliford (18-9) and Wally Bell (13-4).

Las Vegas author and handicapper Andy Iskoe tracks umpire stats at www.thelogicalapproach.com, his website.

"The best way to describe it is that the umpire is not a determining factor to put me on a side, but it may either confirm a play I've already selected, or it might steer me away from a game I'm only marginally on," Iskoe said.

"I've found that there are certain umpire biases that develop early in the season that continue to develop consistently throughout the season."

Jim Korona, race and sports book supervisor at the Stardust hotel-casino, is familiar with the umpire angle.

"I know some of our big bettors track umpires, and I know there are several sports services that do it," Korona said. "Do we see a lot of it at the Stardust? That's tougher to say. There are a lot of other factors involved in betting totals -- ballparks, weather conditions. Umpires are just one of many things they look at."

* ON AIR & ONLINE: Radio host Alex Shelton reports that KSHP 1400 AM is broadcasting Hawaii's home football games this year -- a blessing for late-night Las Vegas bettors using the Rainbow Warriors as a "chaser" game. Shelton's "Sports Betting Today" program airs 10 a.m. weekdays on KSHP and features a variety of gambling-industry personalities. ... Former UNLV and NFL coach Ron Meyer is participating in CNNSI.com's "Beat the Experts" football contest. Each week contestants pick the winners of NFL games against Meyer and the rest of the cast of CNN/SI's "NFL Preview" show. Grand prize is a trip for two to the 2000 Olympics in Sydney.