Columnist Dean Juipe: Pro bettors say research is essential

Dean Juipe

Tuesday, Sept. 7, 1999 | 10:20 a.m.

Dean Juipe's column appears Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday and Friday. His boxing notebook appears Thursday. Reach him at juipe@lasvegassun.com or 259-4084.

Abundantly clear over the three-day holiday weekend: Everyone is talking football.

It's the primary topic of conversation in seemingly every bar, and probably every restaurant and barber shop.

It's so widespread that it's as if it has a monopoly on people's attention. Fans of all types and descriptions are immersed in football now that the college season is under way and the pros start within the week.

Aside from the obvious -- that football is the modern national pastime -- all this talk underscores the fact that many Las Vegans may be indifferent toward other sports but they're extremely attentive when it comes to football, its nuances and its betting lines. It's why 75 percent of the population is hooked on three-team parlays.

And that's how the city's sports books make their money. Particularly when it comes to the National Football League, even casual fans have opinions on games and they're willing to back their views with a cash investment.

Of course more people lose than win. Most shrug it off, while some look harder at the numbers.

Sunday at Sunset Station, a near capacity crowd in the Club Madrid room took in Larry Grossman's handicapping seminar and utilized it as a primer for the season. It was a good investment for $25 and, if nothing else, it reinforced the belief that those who make money betting football aren't relying on luck to do it.

The notion of asking the panel of experts for a tip or two for the less serious bettor was quickly nixed, as this audience was far too sophisticated for such trivialities. They were here for hardcore information and well-researched predictions.

What the seminar demonstrated more than anything is the degree of study necessary to pick winners over any substantial length of time. It doesn't happen by chance and if you're not willing to go the extra 10 miles and look at and beyond such incidental factors as injuries, turf, past performance and trends, then you simply will not win in the long run.

The fact of the matter is that thousands of numbers related to past performance are accessible and can help guide a bettor through the rigors of an NFL season. The books are utilizing those numbers and so are the serious players.

For instance, it has to be of some value to know the Jacksonville Jaguars are 13-1 against the spread in their history when facing an opponent that is coming off at least a 10-point against the spread win the previous week. Or that the St. Louis Rams are 0-7 against the spread since 1995 at home when their opponent suffered a road loss the previous week.

Now, you can look at information like that and say "so what?" or feign that it doesn't interest you, yet the professional players are making a living by incorporating statistical tidbits like these into their picks. They're not just playing hunches.

So you have two choices as the new season begins. You can stay with the laissez faire approach that virtually ensures more losses than wins, or you can take advantage of what's available and maybe go to the window a little more often.

Along the way you may learn about "asymmetrical leveraging" and that the New York Giants are 0-6 against the spread since 1995 the week after a straight-up loss in which they were winning at the end of the third quarter.

That's a plum the pros find priceless.