Celebrating on the ground

Monday, Nov. 29, 1999 | 10:16 a.m.

McCarran International Airport will likely be among the dullest places in Las Vegas on New Year's Eve and New Year's Day, as most major airlines there have canceled more than 20 percent of their flights for those days.

Airline representatives and analysts say because the holiday falls on a weekend -- and because many resorts are requiring three- or four-day minimum stays -- travelers will be filling planes earlier in the week than during previous New Year's holidays.

Most spokesmen say it is travelers' desire to get to their destinations in time to observe the arrival of the new millennium and not a fear of Y2K complications that is behind the cancellation of so many flights on New Year's Eve and New Year's Day.

"We do this type of analysis for every holiday period," said Kristina Price, a spokeswoman for Chicago-based United Airlines, the No. 3 carrier at McCarran International Airport. "We look at past demand and current travel forecasts to make decisions on what flights to cancel."

Although United is canceling 22 percent of its New Year's Eve flights system-wide and 12 percent of its flights on New Year's Day, none of the cancellations affect Las Vegas. Price said most of United's cancellations are on flights in international markets.

Leisure markets, Price said, are seeing greater demand this year because of special millennium celebrations. She said planes are expected to be full on planes bound for New York City, Phoenix, Hawaii, Florida, Southern California and Las Vegas.

The heavy flying days are expected to be Wednesday, Dec. 29, and Thursday, Dec. 30. Outbound flights from resort cities on Sunday, Jan. 2, are expected to be jammed.

In fact bookings to and from Las Vegas for the days before and after the holiday are ahead of last year's pace.

Terry Trippler, an airline consumer advocate with 1travel.com, said booking patterns have changed for New Year's travel as the holiday approaches. He said Y2K concerns initially slowed bookings, but as travelers became more familiar with the problem and more assured that trouble was going to be averted, they started buying tickets.

"More than a year ago, when possible problems were confirmed, people were nervous about it," Trippler said. "People were getting completely carried away with the radical elements, but then they said, 'Wait a minute, let's get reasonable.' So, over the course of the year, people received assurances from places like their utility companies that it was a problem that was being taken seriously and being dealt with."

Many of the traditional holiday travelers bought their tickets while consumers seeking a special place to bring in the new millennium began looking for places to go and transportation to get there.

"People were looking at Y2K and saying, 'Hey, if it's all going to blow up, I'd rather be on vacation,' " Trippler said.

But that's when some price gouging hit. Trippler said cruise lines were the worst offenders, but Las Vegas has seen the same phenomenon of rooms going for as much as 10 times more than the normal rate.

"We've even seen some of that here in Minneapolis," Trippler said. "Hotels that have rooms for under a hundred dollars go for three times that amount with their millennium specials."

In Las Vegas, the most extraordinary increase was Caesars Palace's $2,000-a-night rate with a four-night minimum.

"With that kind of a rate," Trippler said, "I should at least get a toaster or a blender or some small appliance."

Because of the high hotel rates, airlines did not see their planes fill up as quickly as they earlier anticipated. When some hotels began dropping their rates slightly to assure they would be full, air ticket sales also started to pick up.

Today, Las Vegas still has some hotel vacancies and airlines say there are some seats on planes available, although bookings are ahead of last year's pace on most carriers. Most travelers will arrive the Wednesday and Thursday before Friday's big night, then go back Sunday.

Tripper said Sunday could be a banner day for the airlines because many people will have to be back to work or their children will have to be back to school on Monday, Jan. 3.

The pattern is similar to the one the aviation industry just experienced during the Thanksgiving holiday. The Wednesday preceding Thanksgiving and the Sunday after it traditionally are among the busiest for air carriers. For McCarran International, the Thanksgiving weekend served as a dress rehearsal for New Year's Eve.

"We're expecting Tuesday and Wednesday will be the crunch days," said Debbie Millett, a spokeswoman for McCarran. "And Sunday and Monday will be pretty busy as well."

Millett said the millennium celebration and not Y2K concerns are driving the upcoming holiday's air traffic patterns. McCarran recently proclaimed itself fit for the switch from 1999 to 2000 that could wreak havoc on computers worldwide.

Officials with McCarran, America West Airlines and the Air Transport Association said in a recent news conference at the airport that the Aviation Millennium Project designed for industry readiness has been a success.

"The airline industry is in great shape and will be ready for the new millennium," said David Fuscus of the Air Transport Association, which represents 23 U.S. airlines. "We're confident that air travel will be as safe on Jan. 1 as it is today and will be tomorrow and beyond."

The Aviation Millennium Project, coordinated by the association, is the industry's response to potential Y2K problems. It involves systems checks with 102 U.S. and Canadian airlines and more than 500 airports, air traffic control systems and hundreds of suppliers and manufacturers.

That's not to say that Y2K hasn't had an impact on some aspects of air travel. Roz Santangelo, a Las Vegas spokeswoman for Southwest Airlines, said the company's annual "Home for the Holidays" promotion took a Y2K hit.

The promotion is geared to senior citizens on fixed incomes. The airline takes applications from eligible senior citizens, many living at local care centers. The airline chooses 15 people to fly during the holiday season to join loved ones in other cities.

"As the promotion progressed, we determined that we had received about half as many applications as we had in previous years," Santangelo said. "Near the deadline, we started asking the senior centers to get the word out and we tried to find out why there weren't as many applicants.

"What we found out is that many of these senior citizens were afraid that Y2K computer glitches would create problems and they didn't want to be away during the holidays this year."

But that's the only Y2K-related incident reported by Southwest, the top air carrier at McCarran. Southwest officials did not have an exact count of the number of flights that would be canceled in the Las Vegas market over New Year's, but they acknowledged it would likely be around the same percentage of cutbacks as other carriers. And, they emphasized the cancellations were the result of low demand, not Y2K fears.

America West, the No. 2 operator at McCarran, isn't giving out specifics about New Year's cancellations for competitive reasons. Spokeswoman Patty Nowack said the flight reductions are a result of reduced load demand and not Y2K concerns.

Las Vegas-based National Airlines is taking a New Year's approach similar to that of Virgin Atlantic Airlines of London. National plans to close down for about 13 hours beginning New Year's Eve.

Virgin Atlantic chief executive Richard Branson has said his airline would shut down so that employees could enjoy the arrival of the new millennium.

National spokesman Dik Shimizu said the airline will operate Dec. 31, but will cancel all flights that don't land by 10 p.m. in their respective time zones. Flights will start up again Jan. 1 at 11 a.m.

"I'm not sure exactly how many flights that will affect," Shimizu said, "but that's how we're planning to handle it."

National began operations in May, so it has no base for comparison to previous New Year's holidays.

The No. 4 and 5 carriers at McCarran are reporting light demand resulting in cancellations on New Year's Eve and New Year's Day, and above-average bookings on the days preceding the holiday.

"We're looking at an 18 percent reduction in flights for the entire weekend," said Kip Smith, a spokesman for Atlanta-based Delta Air Lines. "The days before the holiday are closer to normal, but right after the holiday is extremely busy."

"Overall, our demand is quite strong," said Al Becker of American Airlines in Dallas. "But we've thinned our schedule on the holiday itself in Las Vegas just as we have everywhere else.

"Travelers are getting to where they're going to be for the arrival of the new millennium. The arrival of a new century is an extraordinary event and we know some people are choosing Las Vegas to be the place where they experience that."

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