Columnist Sal DeFilippo: Get ready for some misery at the Meadowlands

Sal DeFilippo

Friday, Nov. 5, 1999 | 10 a.m.

Sal DeFilippo's pro football picks column appears Friday. Reach him at 259-4076 or sal@vegas.com

The NFL's competition committee, which is responsible for any changes in league rules, should be penalized.

No, I'm not talking about the instant replay, particularly the stipulation that all reviews are completed within 90 seconds. How long can it take to watch three angles of one play? It makes you wonder what the referee is really watching under that hood surrounding the camera. The refusal to overturn some obvious plays proves he's surely not taking an eye exam under there.

This also has nothing to do with that corny thing about the kickers moistening certain footballs, either, and efforts to control that, um, tragedy.

Instead, the rules gurus have committed a severe oversight by not creating legislation to prevent what will apparently take place Sunday in East Rutherford, N.J.

The league is actually allowing Dave Brown and Rick Mirer to be starting quarterbacks in the same game.

On the surface, this may not seem so atrocious. Can Jake Plummer's and Ray Lucas' injuries really be that bad? Bad enough to lead to this?

A statistical analysis of this weekend's signal-callers for the Arizona Cardinals and New York Jets shows why these two wrongs don't make a right:

* Brown's career quarterback rating is 67.7, while Mirer's is even worse at 62.7. This season, neither has lived up to even those weak standards, with Mirer at 55.4 and Brown at 35.4. By comparison, Rams quarterback Curt Warner has a rating of 125.9.

* Warner has 18 touchdown passes this season -- neither Brown nor Mirer has ever thrown more than 13 touchdowns in any one season (that was Mirer's memorable 1995 campaign, which included 20 interceptions, five fumbles and 42 sacks in 15 games for Seattle. Brown twice reached 12 TD tosses while with the Giants, including 1996, when he also reached the 20-interception plateau, adding nine fumbles and 49 sacks for good measure).

* Peyton Manning of Indianapolis has 40 touchdown passes in 23 career games, one fewer than Brown's 62-game total and four fewer than Mirer has amassed in 68 NFL outings.

Ironically, perhaps the best season for each quarterback came in the same year -- 1998, when Brown threw only five passes and Mirer never took a snap.

Even though he's now a Cardinal sin, Brown should receive a warm welcome from the Giants Stadium faithful -- particularly since he is finally on the visiting team.

The Jets are listed as 7-point favorites, but the game really amounts to a pick -- or rather, which QB throws fewer of them.

For the record

Buffalo's rally to gain me a push against the spread -- although by kickoff, the number admittedly had reached 3 1/2 -- provided the 1 in a 7-6-1 week against the number.

On over/unders, however, I was 10-4, and would have been 11-3 were it not for the Hail Mary that sent the New Orleans-Cleveland total over. That's 18-6-1 in the past two weeks.

One could deduce, then, that I can handicap how many points will be scored in a game, but not by which team. Go figure.

Top of the line: 2-5-1.

Against the spread: 52-57-4.

Over/unders: 64-46-3.

Straight-up: 66-47.

Top of the line

ST. LOUIS -3 1/2 at Detroit, over 45 -- The Rams dealt out a 21 to Tennessee faster than any blackjack dealer, yet still refused to stand pat, almost rallying to win the game. The Lions will bust this week. St. Louis 34, Detroit 23.

Other games

ATLANTA +6 vs. Jacksonville, over 41 1/2 -- Jacksonville demolished Cincinnati last week, but the second half of the season belongs to Atlanta -- in the past two seasons, they are 14-2 in Games 9-16. Mike Hollis wins the game on a late field goal. Jacksonville 27, Atlanta 24.

NEW YORK JETS -7 vs. Arizona, under 35 -- Remember three seasons ago, when the Jets were 1-15 and the worst team in the league? The 1 refers to a 10-point win over these same silly Cardinals. New York Jets 16, Arizona 6.

GREEN BAY -9 vs. Chicago, over 41 -- Watching football's oldest rivalry will no doubt revive memories of the greatest running back I've ever seen, Walter Payton. Even Lambeau Field could be considered Payton's place -- he still shares the all-time single-game rushing mark at Lambeau, once tearing up the frozen tundra for 205 yards. The Bears will wear patches with No. 34 in tribute, but unfortunately, that's the only Sweetness they'll have this week. Green Bay 30, Chicago 16.

BUFFALO +6 at Washington, under 46 -- The Bills are 5-3, yet fourth in their division. The Redskins were clicking on all cylinders last week while the Bills sputtered for most of the day. This week, the tides turn a bit, for each team, but a costly turnover late aids a Redskins rally. Washington 20, Buffalo 16.

INDIANAPOLIS -3 1/2 vs. Chiefs, under 45 1/2 -- These teams are successful, yet polar opposites. The boring Chiefs will force a few turnovers and sustain a few drives and kick a few field goals. Then, just when they've appeared to have lulled everyone to sleep, Peyton Manning will wake up and throw a few touchdowns in just a few minutes. Indianapolis 24, Kansas City 17.

PHILADELPHIA +4 at Carolina, under 36 -- The Eagles are so used to losing that last week's collapse shouldn't have any effect on them. This time, they mount the rally. Philadelphia 16, Carolina 14.

BALTIMORE -3 at Cleveland, under 32 1/2 -- Old Browns, meet the new Browns. Cleveland fanatics have been waiting for a long time for this game. A win by the new club in front of the home crowd would be storybook material. Too good to be true. Baltimore 17, Cleveland 10.

TAMPA BAY -3 1/2 at New Orleans, under 33 -- The Buccaneers studied films of their previous two offensive performances, which netted nine total points. That was little help, so they turned to films of the Saints' last two defensive efforts, and from there crafted a new strategy -- just throw Hail Mary passes on every play. It works. Tampa Bay 21, New Orleans 7.

SAN FRANCISCO -2 vs. Pittsburgh, under 41 1/2 -- The team of the '70s meets the team of the '80s. Too bad this is the late '90s and lately these clubs are playing like zeroes. San Francisco 17, Pittsburgh 10.

DENVER -1 1/2 at San Diego, under 35 1/2 -- Given San Diego's average of 1.5 points per game for the last two weeks, I figure the Broncos will only need about a field goal to cover. It takes a while, but they get there. Denver 13, San Diego 3.

CINCINNATI +14 at Seattle, over 39 1/2 -- Stat of the week, courtesy of Alex Shelton of Elmore Sports and KSHP 1400-AM: As a double-digit favorite, the Seahawks are 0-11 against the spread. After Green Bay, Seattle is due for a letdown, anyway. Seattle 26, Cincinnati 19.

MIAMI -3 vs. Tennessee, under 36 1/2-- The more Dan Marino gets comfortable on the sidelines, the more Jimmy Johnson is getting comfortable keeping him there. Damon Huard continues to impress, this time in front of a national audience, and the Dolphins' defense makes it easy for him. Miami 20, Tennessee 7.

MINNESOTA -6 1/2 vs. Dallas, over 48 -- In the eight Monday Night games this season, the home team has covered the spread in only two of those games. Dallas covered at home against Atlanta in Week 2 and the Giants covered at home in Week 6 -- against Dallas. The Cowboys continue the trend, with a little help from Cris Carter and Randy Moss, who each score. Minnesota 33, Dallas 20.