Where I Stand — Mike O’Callaghan: Israel demands change

Tuesday, May 25, 1999 | 1:24 a.m.

TEL AVIV -- ELECTIONS in the United States and in other countries have always been of great interest to me. In addition to election activities in our country I've been able to oversee two elections in Nicaragua and one with the Kurds in Northern Iraq. The Palestinian election plus elections in Costa Rica and the Republic of China have also been watched close-up in the past decade. This has been my third Israeli political campaign and election and, like all others, it had more than a few surprises.

Never have I had a prior opportunity to observe firsthand a political campaign of an incumbent unravel so quickly and completely. Even as far away as the United States the electronic mail and Israeli newspapers were telling us that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was in the political fight of his life. Very simply, he was in deep trouble and opponents lined up from all sides to pick at his bones.

When Netanyahu's Minister of Defense Yitzhak Mordechai, a populist general and hero to millions, resigned, or as the incumbent prime minister says, was fired, the fat was in the fire. Also Arab candidate Azmi Bishara was showing on the political scale along with Ze'ev (Benny) Begin. Mordechai, along with some other popular Likud Party members, started the Third Party and soon they became major players in the campaign for the national leadership.

Still, in the big game, Netanyahu and his Likud Party were the leaders pursued close behind by another popular military leader, Ehud Barak, of the One Israel Party representing labor. From all outward appearances the several candidates for this office gave the incumbent an opportunity to survive the primary election and go into a runoff with hopes of a low turnout among Arab voters giving him the edge. There was no doubt that the Arab favorite, Bishara, wouldn't survive the May election. Without Bishara in the race, observers could see large numbers of Arab voters staying home in June.

In the meantime the Netanyahu campaign began to feel the heat of the Barak attacks. Then the incumbent began to act like a man in trouble. Just a couple of weeks before the election he demanded that the Orient House in Jerusalem be closed and not used by the Palestinian Authority. This action to please his followers from the religious right was so outrageous it was overruled by the Supreme Court.

A week before election day, Netanyahu flashed another card used by politicians in campaign trouble. Not only did he blame his political problems on the Israeli press, he made an all out attack on the media. As an interested observer of Israeli politics I have to admit that the media had turned sharply against Netanyahu during the last 18 months. The day before election the Ha'aretz newspaper made its final attack in an editorial entitled "Unworthy of Leadership." It concluded:

"The office of prime minister by its very nature arouses respect; Netanyahu managed to destroy his authority among the members of his government, senior administrators and colleagues in the international community. He has reached the end of his tenure enveloped in a cloud of suspicion that his positions and the guidelines he issues are tainted by ulterior motives."

Yes, the Israeli press has been tearing at the prime minister, but what was most notable to me was the attitude of my friends who had always voted with the Likud Party. Most of them were talking about the incumbent as a man who had promised and failed. They were looking for a change and they had plenty of alternatives to choose from on election day. Nevertheless it looked like Barak winning a majority of votes in the May election was still only a dream. Then two days before the polls opened Bishara pulled out of the race. This move gave the Arabs an opportunity to vote for another Netanyahu opponent.

Sunday, the day before the election, I was in Nazareth meeting with Mayor Ramez Jeraise when the other shoe dropped on Netanyahu's head. Yitzhak Mordechai withdrew from the race and openly endorsed Barak. Begin also pulled out and failed to endorse Netanyahu. Now it was down to a two-man race and had become the bad dream Netanyahu supporters hoped they wouldn't experience.

The following day the voting held in schools was quiet, but the partisans continued their activity. Watching the exit polls that evening created no great excitement other than wondering just how badly Barak would beat Netanyahu. The bad news came swiftly for the incumbent and he made a dignified and gracious concession speech.

It was all over and now the winner has to put together a new government which demands the trading and promises necessary for the creation of a ruling coalition. Although the religious Shas party backed Netanyahu, who lost, the party went on to gain several seats in the Knessett. Shas is now a major party and although disliked by Barak supporters they must be handled with care when the new government is put together.