Fans would flock to see Tyson lose

Friday, Jan. 15, 1999 | 10:43 a.m.

Dean Juipe's column appears Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday and Friday. His boxing notebook appears Thursday. Reach him at juipe@lasvegassun.com or 259-4084.

Yes, for the umpteenth time, Frans Botha could win this fight.

But you don't believe it, do you? And that's why you probably haven't purchased a ticket for Saturday's fight at the MGM Grand Garden between Botha and Mike Tyson, and it's why you're even reluctant to spring for the 46 bucks to buy the card on pay-per-view.

Ticket sales and pay-per-view buys have been sluggish for this fight for one very good reason: Peter McNeeley. Well, two very good reasons: McNeeley and Bruce Seldon. Well, actually, three very good reasons: McNeeley, Seldon and Frank Bruno.

Those three guys disgraced themselves in fights with Tyson in 1995-96 and the public still feels it was duped. There's nothing worse than believing you're not receiving proper value for your money, whether you're buying a house, a car, or a fight on pay-per-view.

The days of paying to see Tyson maul some bum and have the quick night satisfy the customers have long since passed. Tyson remains boxing's top draw but, in a peculiar twist, the situation has now changed to where the average fan will reach for his wallet only if he thinks the ex-champ could lose.

While some feel otherwise, Tyson's marketability hasn't suffered because of losses to Evander Holyfield, it has suffered because of too many easy wins over the Peter McNeeleys.

As a result, Tyson's future opponents are going to come from a very short list. For instance, if this fight with Botha proves to be the financial disappointment it appears it is today, look for someone like George Foreman to be mentioned for Tyson's April 24 date at the MGM.

Tyson would easily beat the 50-year-old Foreman, but that's not the point and it may not even be relevant. The more important perception is that he would be in for a challenge.

That perception is missing with Botha, which is a mistake on the public's part and maybe one by the promoter as well. If the average fan isn't convinced Botha is a worthy opponent, maybe it's because the promotion failed to convey that message to the masses.

And Botha does have a chance. In fact, if he can get through the first four rounds of this scheduled 10-round fight he has a very good chance.

With each passing round, the odds increasingly favor Botha. That's because of these two factors: Tyson's stamina might not be great, given the late start he got in training; and he very definitely is going to come out and try to end the fight as quickly as possible. Add 'em up and it comes down to this: Tyson's energy level figures to decline as the fight progresses.

The trouble for Botha is surviving the onslaught he's certain to face in the early going. He also has to try to hold off Tyson despite the fact he doesn't have a huge punch.

Those are crisis-like obstacles, yet if Botha can work through them he could end up with his hand raised in victory. True fame and fortune would await.

Likewise, Tyson's career wouldn't be over and it might be only slightly derailed by a loss. If it's true that people will gladly pay to see him lose, he could still make a good living.

Where this promotion came up short was in not convincing the public that Botha might add to Tyson's current two-fight losing streak. It all but ignored Botha and casual fans took that as a sign he was nothing more than a repackaged stiff like McNeeley.