Columnist Jeff Haney: Va. Tech bettors may be chasing fairy tale

Wednesday, Dec. 15, 1999 | 9:15 a.m.

Jeff Haney's sports betting column appears Wednesday. Reach him at 259-4041 or haney@vegas.com

Given the lag between the day lines are posted and kickoff time, you might think college football's bowl season is a real headache for sports books.

Especially in today's technology-driven sports betting climate, a number sitting on the board for weeks at a time might appear vulnerable, as sharp bettors scramble to try to gain an edge on the books in the race for useful information.

Not so, says Stardust sports book director Joe Lupo.

"This is probably one of the easier times of the year to set a line," Lupo said. "At this point they're all competitive teams, they've all played good schedules and you have a pretty good bead on the teams."

Since numbers were hung on this season's 22 on-the-board bowl games (wagering is not permitted on Saturday's Las Vegas Bowl), there has been only minor movement in the lines.

"There are a few games here and there where you're wondering about (the status of) certain players," Lupo said. "But that's normal. I don't think it makes it harder to come up with a number."

Perhaps the most intriguing line movement has come in the Sugar Bowl, the Jan. 4 national championship matchup between Florida State and Virginia Tech. Florida State opened a 7 1/2-point favorite at the Stardust and has been bet down to a 6-point choice.

"I am surprised," Lupo said of the support for Tech. "When you look at the level of competition between Florida State and Virginia Tech, the difference is pretty drastic.

"I thought the line would stay over a touchdown. It was at 6 1/2 for a couple of days, and then we moved it to 6."

Gamblers who put weight in the "common opponents" theory may find reason to bet on Virginia Tech.

The Hokies beat Miami 43-10; the Seminoles beat Miami 31-21. The Hokies beat Virginia 31-7; the Seminoles beat Virginia 35-10. And against Clemson, the Hokies sailed to a 31-11 victory while the Seminoles eked out a 17-14 win.

But Lupo thinks some Hokie backers could be betting with their hearts, not their heads.

"You've got the Cinderella story with Virginia Tech," he said. "Certainly there's some sentimental value there. (Bettors) look at the way Virginia Tech blows people out. And in the minds of the (bettors), they don't care who they're playing, they're going to bet them."

Some sports books, including the Imperial Palace on the Strip and several offshore properties, posted an "early bird" line of 9 or 9 1/2 on the Sugar Bowl before the matchup was officially announced. When that line dropped right away, speculation was that bettors were setting up for a "middle" rather than asserting an opinion on the game.

Speculation was right. Those original Virginia Tech bettors -- or groups of bettors -- now have the option of laying the 6 with Florida State in their quest to win the game both ways.

Another underdog attracting attention is Michigan State, which has been bet from plus 2 1/2 to plus 1 against Florida in the Jan. 1 Citrus Bowl.

Spartan backers were likely influenced by new head coach Bobby Williams' gung-ho attitude. Williams took over at MSU after former head coach Nick Saban was hired away by Louisiana State. At his news conferences, the charismatic Williams has indicated a fierce desire to win on New Year's Day.

Offshore books list Utah as a 6 to 6 1/2-point favorite over Fresno State in the Las Vegas Bowl.

* STARDUST CONTEST: Lupo declined to set a line on Friday's final matchup in the Stardust Invitational handicapping tournament, but acknowledged Dana Corbo of Don Best Sports would be favored over sports-talk radio personality Papa Joe Chevalier.

This week's winner takes home a $10,000 prize, and Lupo is expecting a good crowd Friday night at 9 p.m. "It should be a very lively show," Lupo said. "People love to have the chance to come down and rub elbows with some excellent handicappers."

In the Stardust's free All-American Football Contest, one entrant, Gregory Grimes, went 16-1 to win the $15,000 weekly prize.

* SEX AND THE STEEL CITY: The Boston-based tout sheet "Score" checks in with this unique NFL handicapping angle: "Sex fiend Bill Cowher ruins the Steelers." The newsletter claims the Pittsburgh coach's promiscuous behavior is hurting the team. It boasts: "Knowing about all of Cowher's sexual shennanigans (sic) and the disruption on the Steelers has helped SCORE to cash in on the Steelers' 4-7 spread record."

Oh.

Inexplicably, this scoop is accompanied by a large headshot of a smiling Don Rickles and the headline "Bill Cowher's Secret Sex Life Stuns Rickles."

This seems like a complete non sequitur until you realize Rickles is a big football fan, and then ... well, it still doesn't make much sense.

* NHL WATCH: Bettors were asked to lay as much as minus 140 to get under five goals Friday night when hockey's two sultans of the under clashed. Of course, the total soared over five as the Stars beat the Panthers 4-3. ...

Meanwhile, with standout right winger Peter Bondra absent for several weeks after undergoing knee surgery, the Capitals are becoming hockey's answer to Brad Radke (under players' favorite pitcher). The Caps have gone under in six of their last eight games heading into tonight's meeting with the Thrashers.

* OTHER NOTES: Can college basketball linesmakers post a big enough number when it comes to Loyola Marymount this year? The Lions, an already-weak squad going through a rebuilding season, are 0-5 against the spread and have lost those five games by an average of nearly 23 points. They are a 21-point underdog against UTEP today. ... Computer and fantasy sports company Rotonews is offering a contest in which fans compete for prizes by predicting the outcome of each college bowl game. Visit www.rotonews.com/bowls99/. ... A year ago, underdogs cleaned up in the early college bowl games. After the Las Vegas Bowl landed right on the 7-point offshore number for a push, 'dogs covered the spread in nine of the next 13 bowl games through New Year's Eve. Money-line bettors were also rewarded, as eight of those nine underdogs won the game straight-up.