Two studies say the proposed Strip monorail’s numbers are inflated

Thursday, Dec. 2, 1999 | 9:59 a.m.

Two new studies argue that ridership and revenue estimates for the proposed Las Vegas Strip monorail are so inflated that "bankruptcy is inevitable" if the system is built.

Another report issued last week reached similar conclusions about the 3.8-mile, privately financed rail project. Both of the new studies were paid for by opponents of the monorail.

Consultant Jon Twichell, working on behalf of the Desert Inn Homeowners Association, submitted a study this week to the Public Resources Advisory Group concluding that the monorail will be lucky to draw 25,000 riders a day. That is far below the 54,000 riders predicted in a ridership study prepared on behalf of the monorail's developers.

The advisory group is a California firm retained by Nevada to evaluate financing of the $600 million project. Monorail supporters are asking the state to issue revenue bonds to pay for construction.

An initial ridership study - paid for by MGM Grand-Bally's Monorail LLC. - predicts an average of more than 40,000 nonconvention visitors will ride the system daily. Part of the study is based on ridership on a monorail link between the MGM and Bally's that is already in service.

But opponents argue that the study does not take into account the decline in ridership that would occur when patrons have to pay for something that is now free.

The advisory board isn't required to follow recommendations made in Twichell's report or a new UNLV study - paid for by The Venetian.

"The notion that a public transit system could even cover its operating and maintenance costs ... is totally unsupported by 50 years of public transit finance history," the Twichell report said.

A leading monorail supporter disputed Twichell's conclusions claiming the report fails to account for Las Vegas' unique tourist economy.

"We have 14 of the top 15 largest hotels in the country," said Cam Walker of Broadbent and Walker, lead consultants to the project.

The UNLV study provides a detailed analysis of the proposed monorail's ridership, according to Twichell. It reaches similar conclusions about ridership to Twichell's own study.

Twichell's report claims the experience of other tourist-dependent cities, such as Orlando and San Francisco, suggests the Las Vegas monorail would fall short of projections.