Battle over Prop 5, the sequel, may be less costly than record 1998 campaign

Michelle DeArmond

Wednesday, Aug. 25, 1999 | 3:02 a.m.

LOS ANGELES - California tribes just poured $63.2 million into a ballot battle for Indian gambling and now they have do it over, but the fight could be a lot cheaper if Nevada casinos that backed opponents with big bucks last time decide it's a bad bet.

Opponents of 1998's Proposition 5 prevailed when the state Supreme Court ruled it unconstitutional this week, but only after it was approved by 63 percent of voters.

Popular support for Indian casinos - despite a $25.4 million campaign against Proposition 5 - has given the opposition pause as the tribes push a new initiative for the March 2000 ballot that would amend the California constitution to remove obstacles.

"I think basically everyone wants to take a moment here and decide what the lay of the land is before deciding what the best strategy is to deal with this issue," said Jim Mulhall of the Nevada Resort Association, which represents most major casinos.

"There's a strong sense of vindication," he said. "I think there's also a real sense that California tribes have seemingly bottomless checkbooks to influence the political process."

Nevada interests, trying to stop tribal casinos from luring away California gamblers with Nevada-style slot machines and games, have backed Indian gambling opponents including labor unions, religious leaders and homeowners.

But not only did the opponents get a poor return for their dollar last fall, the tribes didn't wait for the court ruling to get started on the fix-it initiative: Signature-gathering to qualify the new measure for the ballot may be completed within days.

"I don't think they have the stomach for it," Gene Raper, the Sacramento political consultant running the signature-gathering effort for the tribes, said of the Nevada casinos. "They lost so overwhelmingly. It's very unlikely either side would have the need to spend that much again. It could be done for half that."

The state Supreme Court found that Proposition 5 sought to allow the types of casino gambling forbidden by the state constitution. The new measure gets around that problem by amending the constitution, but otherwise generally duplicates Proposition 5.

Jack Gribbon, political director for the Hotel Employees and Restaurant Employees International Union, said his union has not discussed how to respond to the amendment. The union wants the right to organize tribal casino workers, and Gribbon wants the tribes to agree to enforceable bargaining rights with the state.

"However, if the tribes decide to turn their backs on negotiations and go back to the ballot, they risk spending another $100 million and ending up with a legal challenge to a constitutional amendment," he said.

Congress legalized Indian gambling in 1988, requiring tribes to reach gambling compacts with the state before operating casinos and limiting them to only the types of gambling already legal in the state.

More than 40 of California's 107 tribes have run casinos without compacts and under threat of federal and state action. That prompted Proposition 5, which would have required the state to enter into a compact under terms set by the Indians.

The election of Democratic Gov. Gray Davis led to state-tribal negotiations that remain ongoing. Nevertheless, the tribes are proceeding with the constitutional amendment initiative, which requires no negotiating.

Tribes are spending some $4 million to $5 million to get the amendment on the ballot, with much of that money going to signature gatherers at unprecedented rates of up to $3.50 a name, Raper said. He plans to submit more than 1 million signatures to the secretary of state next week for verification, exceeding the 670,816 needed.

The tribes vowed this week to spend whatever it takes to get the new initiative passed, but are expecting the campaign to cost only about $20 million. They are buoyed by the results of a poll they commissioned weeks ago that showed public support of about 69 percent for legalizing Indian gambling.

"The Indians' cause is stronger now than it was at the end of Proposition 5," Raper said.

California lawmakers showed support for the tribes this week by proposing to put a similar constitutional amendment on the ballot, which can be done with a two-thirds vote of the Legislature.

I. Nelson Rose, a gambling expert and law professor at Whittier College, predicts the battle over the tribes' constitutional amendment will cost more than the $88.6 million campaign in 1998, will involve significant Nevada money and will produce a much closer vote.

"Nevada is going to be hit very hard" if this measure passes, Rose said. "I think as a financial decision they don't have a choice."