Nevada expected to lead nation in rates for HS graduations

Friday, Aug. 20, 1999 | 3:59 a.m.

It comes as no surprise to local school officials that Nevada will lead the nation with a 77 percent increase in high school graduates 10 years from now, as the Education Department predicts.

"That statistic does not surprise me -- no doubt population increases have a lot to do with it," said Len Paul, Clark County School District assistant superintendent of secondary education.

"There undoubtedly also will be more kindergarten, elementary, middle school and high school students moving up that ladder (to graduation)."

The Education Department figures released Thursday showed that through 2009 there will be a 9 percent increase, or an additional 1.3 million public high school students, over today's enrollment.

Nevada tops the chart, with a projected 77 percent more high school graduates over the next 10 years, followed by Arizona with 56 percent and North Carolina with 40 percent. Fifteen states will get a 15 percent increase.

Local figures support the national statistics, but are available only through 2008.

They show that the 190,800 school age children attending local public schools in 1998 will grow to 330,000 in 10 years -- a growth of 73 percent.

The number of local high school graduates is projected to nearly double from 10,476 this year to 19,076 in 2008. Because Northern Nevada grows at a slower pace than Southern Nevada, the statewide percentage would level out to the high 70s.

Paul said the district is in the midst of a 10-year building plan that will produce "an enormous number of seats" to meet the projected growth.

But Superintendent Brian Cram notes that with such a large population boom, Nevada also might be No. 1 in dubious areas, such as dropouts and the lowest percentage of high school students going to college.

"I don't think we are ready to meet the challenge," Cram said. "Nevada has had a poor history of high school graduates going on to college. Part of the reason for that is the local great employment situation. There are plenty of good paying jobs available here when they graduate from high school."

To reduce the high percentage of high school graduates not headed to college, Cram said efforts need to be made in preparing high schoolers for college with programs like the community college high schools currently used in Southern Nevada.

Rep. Shelley Berkley, D-Nev., said she is not surprised by the national or local statistics but is concerned that the funding might not be available to provide quality education for record size graduation classes.

"The state and federal governments need to expand programs," she said. "If we do not start doing something now, we will be in a world of hurt 10 years from now."

The federal report also found that the nation is feeling the effects of a second baby boom in the 1980s similar to the original baby boom of the late 1940s and 1950s.

The annual report says there are 53.2 million public and private school students in kindergarten-through-12th grade this fall, up a half-million students from last year.

The department predicts that the public and private school teaching force will rise by 75,000 or 6 percent in the next decade.

College enrollment also hit a record for the second time with 14.9 million students this fall, the report says.