Las Vegas Sun

November 27, 2009

Currently: 60° | Complete forecast | Log in

Columnist Ron Kantowski: 3 sluggers, 2 seasons, 1 computer

Monday, Sept. 28, 1998 | 12:38 p.m.

MARK MCGWIRE hits 70 home runs, Prairie View A&M wins a football game, Lyle Lovett marries Cindy Crawford. The line between fantasy and reality is blurring, my friends.

Prairie View's 14-12 victory over Langston (the university in Oklahoma, not Mark) and Lovett's short-lived marriage to Ms. Crawford notwithstanding, nobody straddled the boundary like McGwire and Sammy Sosa this summer. But what would have happened had they stepped across it?

Let's say that Big Mac and Sammy were waiting for a taxi, when a silver DeLorean pulled up. What if Christopher Lloyd and Michael J. Fox were driving and riding shotgun and on the way to the Mutual Admiration Society, McGwire and Sosa took a detour and found themselves in 1961 -- the year Roger Maris went deep 61 times to break Babe Ruth's home run record?

In reality -- and that's the last time we'll refer to it here -- you don't need a bazillion dollar budget and a Hollywood script to go Back to the Baseball Future. With computer software and a vivid imagination, it's possible to have fun with some of these "what-if" scenarios at a fraction of the cost.

Using a simulation called Diamond Mind Baseball (www.diamondmind.com), I put McGwire on the 1961 Cardinals, replacing Bill White at first base. Likewise, I put Sosa on the '61 Cubs, letting him take George Altman's (.303, 27 HRs, 96 RBIs in '61) spot in the lineup.

It was more of a pitcher's league back then, before the advent of widespread expansion and suspect set-up relief pitching. In fact, set-up relief pitching didn't even exist in 1961. Twenty-six percent of the games played that season featured a complete game, compared to a paltry .064 this year. And the National League composite earned-run average was more than a half-run lower in 1961, 4.01 to 4.69.

Moreover, the baseball they used in those days didn't have Bugs Bunny's signature on it.

So would McGwire and Sosa have had a harder time duplicating their audacious home run totals in a previous generation?

The answer is yes ... and no.

In the Diamond Mind replay, Sosa hit a solid .278 and drove in 115 runs, but finished with just 39 homers. Maybe it was the flannel uniforms.

McGwire, on the other hand, led our fantasy 1961 season with a record-breaking 63 HRs. His stats in that 154-game season (the National League wouldn't add the Mets and Colt .45s and eight games to the schedule until the following year) were remarkably similar to 1998, as McGwire knocked in a league-leading 152 RBIs while hitting .296.

But for the sake of argument, what would have happened had Big Mac and Sammy let Maris squeeze into the DeLorean's back seat on their way back to the future?

Maris might have had to add a goatee to his crewcut to look the part of modern-day slugger. But he wouldn't have had trouble hitting set-up relief pitching, at least according to the Diamond Mind program. I sent Paul O'Neill to Columbus and let Maris take his spot in right field. Again, the Rajah responded with numbers eerily similar to those he put up in 1961 -- 61 HRs, 165 RBIs, .263 average. His real-life 1961 totals: 61, 142, .269.

Conclusion?

Cyberspace is a pretty big place, but the ball sure carries there.

archive

  • Most Read
  • Discussed
  • Most E-mailed

Calendar »

  • 27 Fri
  • 28 Sat
  • 29 Sun
  • 30 Mon
  • 1 Tue