Tax shortfall threatens county programs

Jeff Schweers

Friday, March 27, 1998 | 10:04 a.m.

County officials predict a $10 million shortfall in growth-related operating costs for public safety and criminal justice over the next five years if the current local economic downturn continues.

"While we have a very healthy budget now, it's going to take hard choices to figure out how to fund these programs," Finance Director George Stevens told the County Commission Thursday during a workshop on the 1998-99 budget.

The $580 million budget represents a 7.4 percent increase over the current budget, with 54 new positions in public safety and criminal justice costing $3.6 million.

While the state will pay the salaries of three new District Court judges, the county must pay $2.3 million for the district attorneys, public defenders, clerks and bailiffs to support the expansion. The county also must spend $1.3 million for the 18 firefighters needed to staff one new station.

A sluggish sales tax forecast of 4.4 percent was offset by a 12.4 percent increase in assessed property values, officials said, bringing revenue projections for 1998-99 to $575.7 million.

But down the road, the county's financial picture isn't so bright.

Stevens forecast a $44.9 million increase in costs by 2003 to staff and operate new fire stations, juvenile justice and adult detention facilities and the Regional Justice Center.

Additional capital revenues are expected to increase during those five years by $34.9 million, he said.

Commissioner Lorraine Hunt said she was concerned about how to cover those operating impacts if the growth rate doesn't pick up.

"If growth continues to be stagnant or slow down, the impact could be larger," Hunt said.

Stevens said the impact won't be felt for another two years and that the county budget has some flexibility to meet the shortfall, though not without holding other departmental budgets flat.

The county also faces a shortfall in road financing, officials said, although it presently has $277.4 million in a transportation and road construction fund.

The county's beginning balance last July was $326.2 million, Assistant County Manager Mike Alastuey said, but it has been drawn down to $277.4 million based on current reserved and designated funding.

By the end of fiscal '99, officials said, the 1987 transportation bond proceeds and a special 5-cent ad valorem tax will have been spent, leaving a $67.5 million shortfall in beltway funding projects and a $37.9 million shortfall in resort corridor projects.

Alastuey said there is sufficient bonding capacity from surplus motor vehicle privilege tax and room tax revenue for the county to issue new bonds to cover the shortfall.

Alastuey pointed out that the deficit is based on the County Commission's decision to speed up right-of-way acquisition and construction of facilities to have a semi-completed beltway by 2003.