Columnist Jeff German: Poll indicates Guinn widening lead in GOP race for governor

Tuesday, July 28, 1998 | 11:20 a.m.

WITH A MONTH TO GO before the Sept. 1 primary election, Las Vegas businessman Kenny Guinn has just completed a poll that shows him running away with the race.

The statewide survey of 400 registered Republicans -- conducted the first week of July by nationally known pollster Fred Steeper -- shows Guinn 35 points ahead of his nearest GOP challenger.

Of those surveyed, 54 percent said they would vote for Guinn to 19 percent for Hollywood producer Aaron Russo and 8 percent for Lt. Gov. Lonnie Hammargren, who doesn't seem to have showed up for the race yet. Another 19 percent were undecided.

The poll, which has a 4.5 percent margin of error, shows that Guinn has widened his lead over his opponents since a similar survey at the end of May.

In the May Steeper poll, Guinn held a 42-23 percent edge over Russo, with Hammargren garnering 12 percent. About 24 percent were undecided.

The Guinn campaign attributes the rise in its candidate's popularity to a month-long television ad blitz that introduced the longtime civic leader to the voters.

That new popularity also shows up in a broader Steeper poll of 700 registered voters in both parties throughout the state.

The GOP front-runner, according to the poll, has overtaken Las Vegas Mayor Jan Laverty Jones, the leading Democratic candidate.

Steeper, who has conducted political surveys for former President George Bush and other well-known Republicans, had reported in May that Jones held a slim 43-40 percent lead over Guinn in a head-to-head race, with 17 percent undecided.

The July survey has Guinn in front by a 49-35 percent margin, and the rest undecided.

More women said they would vote for Guinn than Jones, the poll shows. Guinn picked up the support of 46 percent of those questioned to 36 percent for Jones, with 18 percent undecided.

The Jones campaign Monday wasn't impressed with Guinn's reported lead.

"If that's the momentum they've gotten from a month of television ads," Campaign Manager Denise Rawles said, "then we're encouraged by the fact that his lead isn't greater."

Rawles said Jones expects to close the gap with her own television ads, which just began airing.

"We're well in the race," Rawles said.

Since filing for governor five weeks ago, Rawles said, Jones has raised about $600,000 for her campaign war chest. Jones, facing a primary challenge from state Sen. Joe Neal of North Las Vegas and Renoite Jim Champagne, collected about $70,000 from friends in Washington last week.

Guinn, who has been running since February 1996, has raised more than $3.5 million so far and expects to hit the $4 million mark by the end of the summer.

Russo, meanwhile, questioned Guinn's primary poll results.

"That flies directly in the face of a poll we finished yesterday," Russo said.

He insisted his campaign is building momentum and "terrifying" the Guinn forces.

Russo's poll of 879 registered Republicans in Clark County shows Guinn ahead by a 46-33 percent margin in Southern Nevada. About 8 percent of those questioned in Russo's poll said they would vote for Hammargren. Another 13 percent were undecided.

Guinn's latest poll, however, has Russo lagging far behind in Clark County.

Of those surveyed, 62 percent said they would vote for Guinn to 19 percent for Russo. Hammargren weighed in with 7 percent, and the rest were undecided.

Statewide, Guinn is seen in a favorable light by 57 percent of all Republicans surveyed. About 12 percent have an unfavorable impression of him, with 31 percent undecided.

By contrast, Russo has more negatives than positives, despite 10 months of television ads promoting his anti-government platform.

According to the latest Steeper poll, 39 percent of those surveyed view Russo in an unfavorable light. Only 24 percent give him a favorable rating, and 37 percent have no impression of him at all.

Hammargren, who could not be reached for comment, wound up with a 30 percent favorable rating to 28 percent unfavorable and 42 percent undecided.

Say tuned for more poll results as they become available.