Columnist Ralph Siraco: History says odds against Favorite Trick in Derby

Ralph Siraco

Monday, Jan. 26, 1998 | 10:55 a.m.

THE DENVER BRONCOS have set the tone.

The Super Bowl XXXII champs have paved the way for the year of the upset or, at least, the year of the anti-favorite.

On Sunday, the Denver Broncos overcame an 11 1/2 point underdog roll to win the biggest one-day wagering event on the calendar for Las Vegas sports books.

Now the table is set for the biggest one-day racing event on the calendar for Las Vegas race books -- the Kentucky Derby on the first Saturday in May.

The Derby future book favorite, Favorite Trick, is a prime target for this year's anti-favorite Kentucky Derby.

Take into consideration that Favorite Trick hasn't seen racing action since his overwhelming victory in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile at Hollywood Park on Nov. 8 of last year. Now, he is a perfect career eight for eight and he has won the Eclipse Award for the best freshman of 1997. He is also one of two finalists for Horse of the Year 1997 and the gold Eclipse trophy.

But that was last year. The year of the Green Bay Packers and the form-full victory of Super Bowl XXXI..

Favorite Trick's cheesehead starts to melt with the fact that no winner of the previous year's Breeders' Cup Juvenile has gone on to win the Kentucky Derby, and he may very well fall into the category of a Derby no-show like prior Juvenile winner Boston Harbor of 1996. He is currently the Kentucky Derby favorite in the future books around town, and the last time a Derby future book favorite actually won the Derby was when talk of a presidential impeachment centered around a charge of breaking and entering instead of adultery and obstruction of justice.

If you think Hillary is embarrassed by Bill's latest escapade, how do you think Favorite Trick feels of his confidant? The only trainer Trick has known, conditioner Pat Byrne, jilted him for some big bucks and an exclusive trainer's contract that doesn't include his best pupil -- after all he did was win, win and keep on winning with a perfect record. Even Billy can't boast of that streak. Nor can the Broncos.

And what about those family ties? The family tree for Derby pedigree looks more like a cheeseburger than filet. Favorite Trick's dad is Phone Trick, who had a penchant for speed and sprinting and, although his offspring have won at route distances, such as Favorite Trick's 1 1/16-mile Juvenile victory, they have yet to get the classic stay of the Derby's 1 1/4-mile trip. His mom, Evil Elaine, doesn't strike fear into the hearts of the purists either. The breeding suggests a dosage of 4.60, a convoluted formula for stamina and class, which, say the experts of the formula, is too high for Favorite Trick to win at the classic Derby distance.

Breeders' Cup Juvenile and future book jinxes, a change of tutor, suspect breeding, high dosage and a revised training schedule make this pre-Derby favorite the Green Bay Packers of the 1998 Run for the Roses. Great accomplishments and championships of 1997 can fade as fast as the spoils they produce.

So, if not Favorite Trick, then who?

Here are Denver Bronco-type Derby beasts on the road to Louisville:

From the East: Trainer D. Wayne Lukas has already knocked down a pair of stepping-stone events at Gulfstream Park with two Overbrook Farm colts in Cape Town, who won the recent Holy Bull Stakes, and the Spectacular Bid Stakes winner TIme Limit. They will continue on the Florida route. Remsen Stakes winner Coronado's Quest makes his 1998 debut for trainer Shug McGaughey in the Hutcheson Stakes this Saturday. Trainer Neil Howard has three contenders with Lil's Lad leading the way. This guy is fresh from a smashing 16-length Gulfstream allowance victory and also returns, along with the aforementioned Time Limit, in the Hutcheson. Howard's Comic Strip, second in the Holy Bull, will head for the Feb. 21 Fountain of Youth Stakes to take on Cape Town and the local Florida kingpin Sweetsouthernsaint, who suffered his first career defeat while third in the Holy Bull. Dawson's Legacy, who won impressively on the turf opening day at Gulfstream, will return on the trail as soon as his blood chemistry balances out.

From the West: Sophomores taking the left-coast route are competing in the Santa Anita Derby series. The next stop is the Feb. 1 Santa Catalina Stakes. Trainer Bob Baffert, who won the Derby last year with Silver Charm, has a barn full of prospects and his Real Quiet, who didn't like a sloppy track while eighth in the Golden Gate Derby, is set to rally his stock in the Santa Catalina and will probably take on trainer Randy Bradshaw's promising Artax and Wally Dollace's "tough little guy" Futuristic, who beat Artax in their last meeting. Another group will go postward a week later in the Feb. 7 San Vicente Stakes at Arcadia. Baffert has Del Mar Futurity and Norfolk winner Souvenir Copy ready for his '98 debut and, if he doesn't run in the aforementioned Santa Catalina, then the San Vicente will start his campaign. Trainer Wally Dollace will send out another of his sophomore string with the impressive Orville N Wilbur's for his first stakes engagement in the San Vicente. In Northern California, Golden Gate Derby winner Clover Hunter will either stay in the Bay area to contest the Golden State Mile at Bay Meadows on Feb. 16, a race in which he may meet the top sophomore in the north in Dixie Dot Com, or venture south to contest the March 1 San Rafael Stakes at Santa Anita to meet the returning Old Trieste.