Report: Valley will not exceed 1.5 million people

Denise Cardinal

Friday, Oct. 24, 1997 | 11:51 a.m.

If current development practices continue, the Las Vegas Valley will not exceed 1.5 million people, according to an Urban Land Institute report released today.

The Washington, D.C.-based organization, hired by local planning officials to study growth patterns, said the city's natural land boundaries and the density of the residential development would prohibit the metropolitan area's population base from expanding any further.

The current valley population is estimated to be 1.2 million.

The ULI spent the past week in Las Vegas, studying the city's growth patterns and the effects on residents, businesses and the land. The ULI's research panel was made up of developers, public officials, academics, financial officers and other professionals from all over the country. They were asked by the Pizza Group, made up of planners from local governments, to come up with some solutions for the valley to deal with its burgeoning population and sprawling development.

Some of the panel's suggestions:

* Consolidate local governments. The panel found in its interviews of more than 140 area officials and residents that the growing tension among the different municipalities, such as the city of Las Vegas and Clark County, has left them competing for business and development, rather than working together to manage growth.

The conflicts have become so obvious that state legislators, when interviewed by the panel, said, "If they don't do something about it, we'll step in," said panelist John Walsh of Houston.

* Economic diversification. Though the panel lauded the gaming industry for maintaining its appeal in Las Vegas while legalized gaming spread throughout the country, the city's "one-horse town" quality could become a liability if there was a change in the economic climate.

The panel suggested taking new approaches to economic development that don't rely on growth industries -- such as construction -- to succeed. For instance, the city's proximity to the eco-tourism markets of Utah and the Grand Canyon could be better taken advantage of, as well as the city's connection to Los Angeles.

* Sustainable development. Rather than continue to spread the development outward, the panel suggested more compact building within the city's available land constraints. This would in turn allow for more people to move here, while keeping real estate prices affordable.

This would also address one of the concerns consistently brought to the panel's attention -- a need for a sense of community. The city's size, at 1.2 million, concentrated into one metro area rather than several does allow for that to happen, the panel said.

"These goals are attainable," said Walsh, who pointed out Las Vegas has a good track record considering most other cities have problems with a 4 to 5 percent growth rate for more than five years. "What's amazing is how well you've kept up with the growth. At 6 percent growth, consistently, that's a big strain on a city's services."

Also in the Las Vegas corner is the "get things done" attitude that's allowed for such growth to succeed, the panel said.

Overall, the panelists were impressed with Las Vegas, though they found their charge to be more than challenging. In addition to trying to study the fastest-growing city in one week, panelists discovered that what might work in other cities could be impossible in Las Vegas.

"We go to cities and do these studies, and the people we interview usually say 'we're different,"' said Marta Goldsmith, a panelist and vice president of ULI for land use policies. "But with Las Vegas, we found it was true. You really are different."

The report will be shared with the valley's city councils and the Clark County Commission, all of which shared the $95,000 cost of bringing the Urban Land Institute here.