Gibbons: North Korea on verge of crisis

Thursday, Aug. 21, 1997 | 10:02 a.m.

Rep. Jim Gibbons said he fears famine-stricken North Korea will either use its troops to control its starving rural population or attempt a quick strike into South Korea to capture food supplies.

The Nevada Republican made those observations Wednesday following his recent Asian fact-finding trip as a member of the House Intelligence Committee. The two-week journey earlier this month included stops in Beijing, Tokyo and Seoul.

The highlight, however, was a visit to the North Korean capital of Pyongyang, which was tightly controlled by officials of that Communist regime. Congressmen visited with Kang Sok-ju, first vice minister of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, and Li Hyong-chol, director of American affairs for the ministry.

"North Korea is on the verge of a serious crisis that will propel it into catastrophic circumstances if aid isn't forthcoming," Gibbons said. "They're in a state of economic meltdown."

The food shortages are so bad Gibbons said he didn't think the Koreans could hold out another six months without taking drastic action. But because little is known about North Korean President Kim Jong Il, Gibbons said it remains hard to read that country's military intentions.

"There's not enough visibility on Kim Jong Il to know what his intentions are," Gibbons said. "He's secluded. He never comes out into the public."

Gibbons said one possible action would be for the North Koreans to divert troops from the demilitarized zone that separates that nation from democratic South Korea. The congressmen said the troops could then be used to guard against civil unrest, particularly in rural areas where the starvation reportedly is most acute.

"As this famine and starvation grows there will be civil unrest that will force them to make decisions about whether to take military forces off the DMZ (demilitarized zone)," Gibbons said. "They have already walled off highways outside Pyongyang so rural populations don't migrate to the city."

If the North Koreans try to invade South Korea to capture food supplies, Gibbons predicted they would do so during the winter months of December through February. That's when rice paddies are frozen, making it easier to move troops and mechanized units southward.

"I don't think they have the ability to throw a nuclear bomb into Seoul (in South Korea), but they have the ability to fire chemical and biological weapons into that area," Gibbons said.

The congressmen expressed confidence in the American troops defending South Korea after visiting them along the demilitarized zone. Gibbons is familiar with military life as a Persian Gulf War veteran who flew reconnaissance missions as a member of the Nevada Air National Guard.

"We're making sure the U.S. military has the ability to counter any offensive," Gibbons said. "They're very well situated, very well positioned, and they have the right equipment.

"We have a very strong (military) position. We know a great deal about North Korea's military positioning."

Gibbons described Pyongyang as an "eerie" place to visit. There was no ongoing construction, few moving vehicles and scant nighttime electricity.

"The view the (North Korean) officials painted was a mile wide and a micron thick," he said. "Our visit was very controlled."

The congressmen were allowed outside the city only for a side trip about an hour to the south, near the northern side of the DMZ.

"Their corn crops and rice crops seemed to be in good condition," Gibbons said.

But he was quick to add that his delegation wasn't allowed north of the city, where the famine is said to be most severe. International aid groups have estimated that more than 5 million of North Korea's 24 million people will starve before the fall if they don't receive more aid.

"They took us where they wanted to go because they wanted to control what we saw," he said.

It has been alleged that much of the food aid given to North Korea has gone to feed the military and political elite. Gibbons said he also heard that many North Koreans were so desperate for food they were crossing the Yalu River north into China.

Gibbons and fellow intelligence committee members will report to President Clinton and Congress after the lawmakers resume their session early next month.