Sal DeFilippo: Odds are, Jackie Dell has the right numbers

Sal DeFilippo

Monday, April 21, 1997 | 11:59 a.m.

It starts in the wee hours of the morning, usually with a cup of coffee.

Pages of statistics and hours of number crunching. Injury reports, results of past confrontations and detailed player information, combined and molded through multiple calculations. All to reach one number.

A point spread.

Another game, another web of statistics and formulas to untangle. A second cup and the fax machine is turned on.

But Jackie Dell wouldn't have it any other way.

Dell, 67, has been making odds on Las Vegas sporting events since 1952. He has appeared in numerous publications and still has his odds posted in six periodicals, including Las Vegas Sports News.

He isn't paid for his work -- only his expenses are reimbursed -- and his numbers aren't always consistent with the ones you'll find in sports books. Those numbers generally are established and distributed by Michael "Roxy" Roxborough, who heads Las Vegas Sports Consultants and is widely known as the state's top oddsmaker.

So why does Dell slave overnights -- an average of eight hours for a college and pro football weekend -- to arrive at his figures? Simple. It's just what he does.

"I enjoy seeing my column in, and love it even more when my line is better than the official line," Dell said. "I'm not trying to embarrass anyone. It's just interesting and more exciting for the public to have another line to compare with."

Dell doesn't use a computer, like some handicappers, and isn't concerned with the methods used by others.

"I do it all on my own. I know that Roxy has a computer and maybe 40 people working for him, and Jim Feist has even more," Dell said. "If I had an agent, a really sharp guy who could convince casinos, I could set lines for them, too."

Dell, who lives here for nine months and also has a place in Youngstown, Ohio, sets his lines strictly as a gauge for others and doesn't risk his money. He is not interested in making money off of a 900 service.

"I never bet on my games. I used to try, and that was the only time I'd pick a loser," he joked.

"When I make a line, I use figures and calculate. The figures don't lie, and you can't put gut feelings into them, like when you are betting."

So what are the figures? You have to start somewhere, and for Dell, that's with starting lineups.

From there, Dell assigns a team defensive rating that may affect a line by about three points. He starts calculating, using a formula he has developed over time. He matches up players, position by position. And if a starter is injured, he knows the substitute and his vital statistics, too.

Dell says one of the most improperly overemphasized factors in sports betting occurs when a starter is injured, because often his substitute is a good player whose statistics suffer only due to lack of playing time.

"When you see how much the sub normally plays, ratio-wise he could put up better numbers than the starter," Dell said.

Another common misconception happens when a team already having lost at home to a rival suddenly is a road favorite against the same opponent. Bettors can't understand why, but it's clear to an oddsmaker.

"As far as we are concerned, that first result wasn't supposed to happen that way, according to our figures," Dell said. "That doesn't influence it the second time. You have to stick with what the numbers tell you."

Dell has seen it all in his oddsmaking tenure, including run-ins with Jimmy the Greek Snyder, and said some even have tried to run him out of town.

"Some so-called friends spread some rumors to try to discredit me," Dell said. "You know the old saying, 'If you go out in the world and tell a lie, and say it loud enough and long enough, you'll convince the world.'"

Dell cites money management and consistency in amount bet as his most valuable pieces of advice for bettors -- "you can't fluctuate your bets" -- and says bettors shouldn't be prejudiced toward their favorite teams. He considers college basketball his strength, and says Bobby Knight still is the master among coaches, though Rick Pitino is the most respected.

He is considering retirement from the Las Vegas Sports News, but says he'll continue to make lines and offer one of his favorite features, the "possible upsets" he lists with his weekly football point spreads.

And he'll continue to spend anywhere from 20 minutes to an hour setting odds for each basketball game, working the graveyard hours, drinking coffee, faxing his information to whoever wants it.

"I just love to create that number," he said. "It's always been that way."