Election projection restraint urged by West

Thursday, Oct. 31, 1996 | 11:59 a.m.

CARSON CITY -- Western election officials, who believe voter turnout declines when television networks predict winners before the polls close in the West, are calling for network restraint.

Nevada Secretary of State Dean Heller said Wednesday he has joined with his counterparts in seven Western states in asking the networks to hold off projecting winners in presidential and congressional races.

"In many cases, this factor prevents these voters from casting their own vote based on the assumption that it will not count," Heller said.

He has joined with secretaries of state from California, Arizona, Idaho, Montana, Oregon, Utah and Washington in urging the networks to refrain from predicting the winners.

"If the news media accepts this proposal, it will give all Americans an equal chance to participate in selecting our national and local leaders," said Heller, a Republican.

Lane Venardos, CBS News vice president, discounts such worries.

"We have uncovered not one whit of actual evidence that because some TV network called a presidential race before the polls closed anybody ever decided not to go to the poll or to leave the poll before casting his vote," he said.

Political scientist Eric Herzik agreed.

"People who decide to vote are going to vote," said Herzik, chairman of the political science department at the University of Nevada, Reno.

Studies don't prove that voters in the East and Midwest flock to the polls in greater numbers than in the West, Herzik said.

The highest turnouts are in Minnesota and Utah, he said.

The only time the voter turnout may have been affected was in 1980, when President Carter conceded defeat before the polls closed in the West, Herzik said. He said the candidate, not the media, affected the turnout.

Carter conceded the race to Ronald Reagan based on exit-poll projections conducted by the television networks before the polls closed in the West.

Voter turnout has been declining since 1948, long before the networks started predicting winners, Herzik said.

The networks have shown restraint in many elections, he said. They conduct exit polls and could predict the election in each state before the polls close.

Polls close in the West three hours later than in the East, where the major networks are based.

Network policy is not to declare a presidential winner in a state until a majority of polls in that state have closed.

However, Heller and other officials are concerned that President Clinton has such a big lead that he may pile up a winning number of electoral votes in the East and Midwest before the polls close in the West.

Some experts predict that a low turnout could hurt Republicans in California and Western states. The concern is that a landslide victory for Clinton could discourage GOP voters in the West from going to the polls. Low turnouts could affect congressional races and even elections for local offices.

Stanley Moore, a political science professor at Pepperdine University in California, said several close races in California could hinge on the presidential turnout.

"In some districts, if Republicans get discouraged and don't show up at the polls, it could hurt them," he said.