Presidential face-off could impact local races

Wednesday, Oct. 30, 1996 | 11:59 a.m.

In the race for president, the battle for Nevada's four electoral votes may not mean much in the grand scheme of things.

The outcome, however, could have a profound impact on key Nevada races.

Republicans hope to hold their ground here.

But as President Clinton maintains a double-digit lead in the polls over Republican Bob Dole, Democrats are counting on big gains.

Last month, Don Fowler, chairman of the Democratic National Committee, predicted his party would regain the House with the help of Clinton's coattails. Clinton won the state in 1992.

Some believe the president's popularity in Nevada (he's had a lead here by as many as nine points) could help Democrats sweep the two congressional seats here.

Democrats also are hoping to regain the Assembly and maybe even the Senate, where they have a 13-8 disadvantage.

In the 1st Congressional District, state Sen. Bob Coffin is trying to unseat Rep. John Ensign, R-Nev. Ensign has out-raised Coffin by an 8-1 margin in campaign funds. But there are 33,000 more registered Democrats than Republicans in the district, which includes urban parts of Las Vegas, North Las Vegas and Henderson.

In the 2nd Congressional District, which encompasses the remainder of Nevada and 31 percent of Clark County, the demographics are opposite. There are 40,000 more Republicans than Democrats.

Democrat Spike Wilson, a former state senator, and Republican Jim Gibbons, a former assemblyman, are battling to succeed Rep. Barbara Vucanovich, R-Nev., who has held the seat since its creation 14 years ago.

Wilson is regarded as the underdog to the higher-profile Gibbons, who has attracted statewide publicity for developing an initiative on the Nov. 5 ballot to prohibit tax increases without a two-thirds vote of the Legislature.

Fowler believes Coffin and Wilson also will benefit from the nationwide backlash against House Speaker Newt Gingrich, R-Ga., and the Republican-controlled Congress, which at times has gridlocked Capitol Hill.

Ensign has embraced Gingrich's contract with America, while House Majority Leader Dick Armey, R-Texas, has campaigned in Las Vegas for Ensign and Gibbons.

Las Vegas Republican strategist Sig Rogich, a senior adviser to the Dole campaign, expects the voters to choose Ensign and Gibbons next month.

"There's no compelling reason for Nevadans to go to the polls and not re-elect John Ensign," Rogich says. "If nothing else, he should win on that basis."

As for the 2nd District, Rogich acknowledges that Wilson is an "attractive candidate" who has a long history in the state.

"But I don't see any energy in his campaign effort," Rogich says. "I think Jim Gibbons has more than held his own."

Democrats, meanwhile, are feeling optimistic in the state races.

Two years ago, when the Republicans swept control of Congress, Democrats lost more ground in the state Senate and nearly gave up control of the Assembly. Both parties, each having 21 seats, shared leadership roles at the 1995 Legislature.

Lindsey Jydstrup, executive director of the Democratic Legislative Caucus, says Clinton's coattails and an expected strong Democratic turnout on election day should help the party regain control of the Assembly.

With a strong slate of candidates, Jydstrup expects Democrats to pick up 3 to 5 seats.

She acknowledges Democrats will have a tougher time taking back the Senate.

Jydstrup says Democrats have rebounded from the whipping they took at the hands of the Republicans two years ago.

The party, she insists, is energized this campaign season.

She points to last month's primary, where more Democrats than Republicans went to the polls, even though the Republicans had more exciting races.

Rogich, though, isn't willing to concede Nevada to the president.

"I don't think Clinton has the state won yet," he says. "The race will tighten up."

If Clinton ends up with a big lead, however, Democrats run the risk of party regulars staying away from the polls, Rogich says.

"Many people will be less inclined to vote if they think their vote won't make a difference," he adds.

On the whole, Rogich doesn't see much of a Clinton coattail effect in the state.

Neither does Senate Majority Leader Bill Raggio, R-Reno.

"I doubt that it's going to have a major impact," says Raggio, who believes Republicans will hold onto their 13-8 lead in the Senate. "In Nevada, individuals vote more for the people than the parties."

Adds Rogich: "I think the strength of the Clinton campaign is attributed more to a lack of effort of the Dole campaign. I don't think that will transcend down to the state races."