Lack of blockbuster toy won’t deter sales increase

Alison Calkins

Monday, Nov. 25, 1996 | 11:59 a.m.

The Duracell Toy Industry Forecast agrees with industry analysts' predictions that the race for toy-sale revenues is up for grabs this season.

"The lack of a blockbuster license this holiday season will leave room for any toy manufacturer with a great new product to make its mark," said toy industry analyst Sean McGowan of Gerard Klauer Mattison.

"Although there will be some bonafide hot licensed toys, none are expected to capture massive toy dollars like previous blockbusters in the past."

The fifth annual Duracell forecast indicated that "exciting new toys," a reasonably strong economy and increased consumer confidence were three factors likely to fuel a modest increase in 1996 U.S. toy sales over last year.

"Such an increase would continue a five-year growth trend for the $20 billion toy industry," McGowan said.

In the forecast, industry experts predicted:

* Toy sales will increase on average by 4 percent over 1995 sales.

* There will be an increase in sales of educational toys, pre-school and classic toy sales.

* There will be increases in sales of CD-ROM games.

* Toy-only chains will profit more than independent stores from singular toy sales this holiday season.

The forecast's experts also predict that licensed toys, which were reported to have accounted for 50 percent of the toy business in 1994 and 1995, will again represent nearly half of retail toy sales in 1996 despite the lack of a blockbuster license.

Frank Reysen Jr., editor of Playthings magazine, said there hasn't been a follow-up mega-hit license since "The Lion King," but that "Space Jam" and the live-action version of "101 Dalmatians" are strong contenders.

"In addition, the home-video release of 'Toy Story,' which caught the industry by surprise a year ago, should spur sales of related toys," he said.

He also predicted that "Star Wars" will be among the most successful toy licenses this year.

Ruth Roufberg, an independent toy consultant and nationally recognized industry expert, said educational toys should win the war with "combat toys."

"The expected increase in sales of educational toys reflects a better-educated parent population that realizes the importance of education and is eager to supplement their children's schooling with playthings that combine fun and learning," said Roufberg.

"Combat" toys will decrease in sales because parents "realize the connection between the real world and the child's play world and are becoming more resistant to toys that bring violence into the playroom," according to Roufberg.

The next-generation technology from Nintendo, Sega and Sony will increase video game sales, according to Reysen.

"The specialty side of the market is becoming a significant factor as the public appetite increases for educational toys and unique toys that offer play quality," he said.

But there's one toy that should be off everyone's shopping list according to Consumer Reports.

That's Supersonic Ear, made by Wild Planet Toys of San Francisco and recently tested by children for Zillions, the Consumer Reports magazine for kids.

It's the only toy in the Zillions test's 17-year history to receive a "not acceptable" rating.

The dish-shaped listening device amplifies sounds and transmits them through headphones.

But the Consumer Reports test labs report that the Ear has no volume control and amplifies sounds mainly in the frequencies for conversation -- the range of greatest concern for hearing loss.

The Ear's peak sound level measured by Consumer Reports is 120 decibels -- louder than live rock music -- and can accelerate hearing loss, according to a Safety Alert in the magazine's November issue.