It’s Lau’s poll, but it shows Gibbons leading

Wednesday, June 26, 1996 | 11:59 a.m.

CARSON CITY -- When your opponents' polls show you in the lead, things must be going right.

Three polls released within the span of a month place former Assemblyman Jim Gibbons ahead of other Republicans vying to succeed retiring Rep. Barbara Vucanovich, R-Nev.

The latest poll, commissioned by former Secretary of State Cheryl Lau, indicates Gibbons is up by 20 points in the race in Nevada's 2nd Congressional District, which encompasses all of Nevada except urban Las Vegas, North Las Vegas and Henderson.

Luntz Research of Arlington, Va., which has conducted polls for House Speaker Newt Gingrich, R-Ga., surveyed 300 Republican voters by phone for Lau on June 16-17.

Thirty-seven percent said they would vote for Gibbons, while 17 percent would support Lau. Treasurer Bob Seale and Patty Cafferata each received 9 percent. Twenty-four percent were undecided.

When pollsters told respondents about Gibbons' negatives, including his 1989 vote for a 300 percent pension increase for legislators, Lau received 48 percent, Cafferata 15 percent, Gibbons 14 percent and Seale 7 percent. Twelve percent were undecided.

Those numbers prompted pollster Frank Luntz to conclude in a memorandum to Lau, "By no means is it too late to pull this one out."

None of the Democrats, including the leading challenger, former state Sen. Spike Wilson, was included in Lau's poll.

Other recent Republican polls produced results similar to Lau's.

A survey Cafferata released about two weeks ago showed Gibbons with 29 percent, Lau with 13 percent, Cafferata with 10 percent and Seale with 3 percent. Thirty-nine percent were undecided.

Gibbons released a poll in May that showed he would have received 56 percent of the vote, compared with 15 percent for Cafferata and 13 percent for Seale. His poll was conducted before Lau entered the race.