Sal DeFilippo: Playoffs never easy to calculate in NFL

Friday, Dec. 20, 1996 | 11:59 a.m.

EVERY YEAR, people make a big deal about the difficulty of understanding NFL playoff formulas going into the last week of the regular season.

OK, so it isn't natural to assume the postseason fate of the Indianapolis Colts could depend on whether the Bills tie the Chiefs on Sunday.

True, Dallas can clinch a first-round bye if Carolina loses to Pittsburgh, the 49ers lose to Detroit and the Cowboys beat the Redskins by 78 points. But when you consider that Dallas quit scoring touchdowns about six weeks ago, Chris Boniol will have to kick at least 26 field goals for that to happen.

Confusing? Yes. But fortunately, I have spent painstaking hours breaking down these situations, studying all possibilities, factoring in the wind chill, the Pythagorean therom, the calories from fat.

Allow me to simplify things:

* The Jets can clinch a playoff berth if they win 10 games on Sunday.

* Win, lose or tie, Wayne Fontes is coaching his last game Monday for Detroit.

* There are more teams in the playoffs than fans attending Saturday's Rams-Saints game.

* All AFC teams are already mathematically eliminated from winning the Super Bowl.

* The Cardinals should have easily made the playoffs, based on their 10-5 mark against the spread. If records against the oddsmakers were used, the NFC would be almost the same -- Carolina, with an NFL-best 12-3 mark against the spread, Green Bay and Minnesota would qualify, and San Francisco and Philadelphia would be battling Chicago for the final spot. In the AFC, Denver, Pittsburgh, Cincinnati and Houston would be in, with Buffalo and Oakland leading for final spots.

For the season

I was 6-6 against the spread on Sunday, but 0-3 on Saturday and Monday. Best bet Cincinnati rallied to win in the second half.

Lock of the week: 5-11

Against the spread: 98-122-1 (44.6 percent)

Straight-up: 127-94 (57.5 percent)

Lock of the week

OAKLAND -4 vs. Seattle -- Stan Gelbaugh is likely to be quarterbacking Seattle this weekend, which says more than enough about this game. The Raiders, meanwhile, are coming off a strong 20-penalty, 157-yard performance against Denver. They need just eight penalties to break the all-time record of 156, set by (of course) the Raiders in 1994, and need just 94 penalty yards to top the mark of 1,274 set by (of course) the Raiders in 1969. Prediction: Oakland 21, Seattle 6.

Other games

NEW ENGLAND -9 at New York Giants -- Bill Parcells has proven in the past that he can win here -- and Dan Reeves has proven that he can't. Prediction: New England 31, New York Giants 10.

ST. LOUIS -5 vs. New Orleans -- Tony Banks' autograph should be worth a lot someday, since he usually can't finish signing his name before he loses the handle on the pen and fumbles it. New Orleans' inexplicable streak of nine straight wins to end the regular season has to end. Prediction: St. Louis 26, New Orleans 16.

KANSAS CITY +4 at Buffalo -- The Bills are 1-13 against the spread as favorites in December since 1991. Steve Christie rebounds from his embarrassing Monday night miss and kicks Buffalo into the playoffs. Prediction: Buffalo 23, Kansas City 20.

NEW YORK JETS +3 1/2 vs. Miami -- Now that they've clinched first -- draft pick -- for the second-straight year, outgoing coach Rich Kotite will likely rest his starters. Prediction: New York Jets 23, Miami 13.

MINNESOTA +11 at Green Bay -- A loss by fewer than 19 points is just as good as a win for the Packers, so don't expect them to heat up the frozen tundra. Prediction: Green Bay 16, Minnesota 13.

BALTIMORE -3 vs. Houston -- The Oilers were 6-2 once? Yeah, right. Next you're gonna tell me that Vinny Testaverde is a Pro Bowl quarterback. Prediction: Baltimore 31, Houston 20.

INDIANAPOLIS Pick at Cincinnati -- The Colts have played five games in Cincinnati and won all five. Cary Blanchard's stellar season is capped with a game-winner. Prediction: Indianapolis 17, Cincinnati 16.

PHILADELPHIA -5 1/2 vs. Arizona -- Philadelphia may have almost lost to the Jets last week, but remember this: Arizona actually did. Prediction: Philadelphia 23, Arizona 16.

TAMPA BAY -2 1/2 vs. Chicago -- How long has it been since the Bears' last December road victory? Put it this way -- Coach Ditka was proud that day. The streak reaches 20 this week. Prediction: Tampa Bay 20, Chicago 10.

PITTSBURGH +5 1/2 at Carolina -- The Panthers have allowed only one touchdown in the second half at Ericcson Stadium this season, and that was in September. Seven straight for the big cats. Prediction: Carolina 17, Pittsburgh 14.

ATLANTA +9 at Jacksonville -- This week, Bobby Hebert wises up and actually starts to pick fights with players on the other team. Prediction: Jacksonville 34, Atlanta 29.

WASHINGTON -1 vs. Dallas -- Now that the Redskins have completely cut off the circulation in their playoff veins, they'll relax and play well. Prediction: Washington 24, Dallas 16.

DENVER -1 1/2 at San Diego -- The Broncos ride into the postseason with plenty of horsepower. Prediction: Denver 24, San Diego 14.

SAN FRANCISCO -12 1/2 vs. Lions -- Expect the line to change dramatically pending the outcome of the Panthers-Steelers game. Still, the 49ers are 16-6 against the spread with Al, Frank and Dan in the booth, including 2-0 this year. Prediction: San Francisco 33, Detroit 12.