Wednesday, Dec. 18, 1996 | 11:59 a.m.
CARSON CITY -- Taxable sales, one indicator of Nevada's economy, rose to $2 billion in October, an 11.7 percent gain from a year ago and the 11th straight time sales increased by double-digit percentages over the same month of the previous year.
But a university economist warns there are uncertainties on the horizon that could lead to a downturn.
The state Taxation Department Tuesday reported taxable sales in Clark County boomed by 15.8 percent compared to a gain of 5.9 percent in Washoe County and 5.6 percent in Carson City.
Clark County sales reached $1.3 billion, or 67 percent of the state's business. There was an increase of 20.4 percent to $111.5 million in sale of building materials and hardware; car sales rose by 12.1 percent to $165.4 million; bars and restaurants reported $243.6 million in business, up 3.4 percent and miscellaneous retail items reached $134.8 million, up 15.3 percent in Southern Nevada.
Thomas Cargill, professor of economics at the University of Nevada, Reno, said the expansion is being fueled by the construction in Southern Nevada and the people moving in from California to retire. The amount of increase in Southern Nevada, he said, is phenomenal compared to the Reno area, which is only 0.5 percent above the inflation rate.
Cargill foresees taxable sales in 1997 growing in the 8-10 percent range and gaming going up at only a 4-6 percent clip.
Ever since Congress passed legislation to stop states from taxing the retirements of people who retire in other states, Cargill says a lot of Californians have been moving to Southern Nevada. And when they arrive, they account for more buying.
The Clark County sales are dominated by construction. And that presents an underlying weakness, he said. About 7 percent of Nevada's economy is tied to construction, higher than other states in the West.
"You do reach an exhaustion point," Cargill said. "There is a limit to how much gaming can absorb," talking about the building of new casinos in Las Vegas.
"It's disconcerting to hear people talk about no limit," he said. "But you hear that in Southern Nevada."
The department said for the first four months of this fiscal year, there have been $7.1 billion in taxable sales, up 11.9 percent from 1995. Clark County's taxable sales grew 15.4 percent during this period to $5.2 billion.
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