College football by the odds: Vegas picks and preview of weeknight games

By Case Keefer (contact)

Thursday, Aug. 29, 2019 | 2 a.m.

Turnovers are the worst way to lose a football bet, which made Talking Points’ loss on its first play of the year tough to swallow.

Florida far outplayed Miami on an efficiency level — gaining a dominant 1 yard more per play — but couldn’t hang on to that darn egg-shaped pigskin. The Gators failed to recover four of the game’s five total fumbles, the most random event in football, and tossed two interceptions on top of it to kill any chance of covering the 7-point spread in a 24-20 victory.

But it’s a long season. There’s no reason to get down from a single loss, not when there are hundreds of games still to come — and more than a baker’s dozen of weeknight contests starting today to boot.

Talking Points plans to handicap every Football Bowl Subdivision game this season with picks separated into three categories — plays, leans and guesses. Lines are the best currently available in Las Vegas on the chosen side. The blog is 1-1 overall so far. Check below for picks on every game the next two nights, and come back Saturday to find the rest of the week 1 slate.

AAC

Wisconsin minus-12 at South Florida, over/under: 59. Buy signs are on Wisconsin until further notice. The betting market is judging the Badgers too harshly for a mediocre 2018 season that’s more likely to wind up as a blip than the norm. Play: Wisconsin minus-12.

UCLA plus-3 at Cincinnati, over/under: 58. With virtually the same rosters, UCLA was a 14-point home favorite in this matchup a year ago. Yes, Cincinnati won 26-17 but UCLA had a slight yardage edge. Be wary of power-rating shifts this enormous — even over the course of a year. Lean: UCLA plus-3.

Utah State plus-3.5 at Wake Forest, over/under: 60. Gut says Wake Forest should win the game based on its consistency compared to Utah State’s restart with new-old coach Gary Andersen, but the metrics indicate Utah State is the better team and undervalued here. Let’s start the season by setting a precedent: Numbers over instinct. Guess: Utah State plus-3.5.

Florida International plus-2.5 at Tulane, over/under: 58.5. This is the closest game of the early slate by the SP+ rankings with Tulane and Florida International at No. 89 and No. 90 in the nation, respectively. That implies the home team should be a 3-point favorite, even though action on the underdog has shaved the spread down a half-point. Guess: Tulane minus-2.5.

ACC

Georgia Tech plus-37 at Clemson, over/under: 60. Backing Clemson is going to require paying an inflated price, if not all season then at least to start the year. The Tigers should win this game easily but there’s no guarantee they’ll perform flawlessly in Week 1, and therefore, no reason to lay this high of a number. Guess: Georgia Tech plus-37.

Big Ten

Tulsa plus-23 at Michigan State, over/under: 46.5. The Spartans’ offensive efficiency has regressed in each of the last four years and they haven’t undergone any major changes ahead of this season. That’s not the profile of a team worth trusting to lay more than three touchdowns. Guess: Tulsa plus-23.

Massachusetts plus-15.5 at Rutgers, over/under: 55.5. Yeah, it might be Rutgers’ best shot at a win this year as some have suggested. That’s not a worthwhile handicapping angle. It’s not like Massachusetts’ schedule is overflowing with favorable spots either. Neither team is worth giving this many points. Guess: Massachusetts plus-15.5.

Independents

Utah minus-7 at BYU, over/under: 48.5. Grab the slowly disappearing full touchdown while it’s still available. This rivalry game hasn’t been settled by a double-digit final score since 2011. Play: BYU plus-7.

Rice plus-21.5 at Army, over/under: 48.5. There’s no value to be found here with the number right where it should be, but don’t blindly assume Army’s triple-option isn’t high-powered enough to manufacture a blowout. The Black Knights won four games by this large of a margin last year, including a 70-14 Armed Forces Bowl win over Houston. Guess: Army minus-21.5.

Mountain West

Purdue minus-11 at UNR, over/under: 59. This is a preposterous line weighted too far heavily on what happened last season. Yes, Purdue has been electric on offensively the last two years but they’re 124^th in the nation in returning production on that side of the ball. The Wolf Pack have far more experience to go with a couple highly regarded recruiting classes coming of age. Play: UNR plus-11.

Pac-12

Oklahoma State minus-14.5 at Oregon State, over/under: 72. The Cowboys are going to be a force once they get rolling, but it might be smart to hold off from betting them for a week or two. This is an odd and, therefore, difficult trip to take on a team that’s quietly upgraded their talent. Lean: Oregon State plus-14.5.

Colorado State plus-13 at Colorado, over/under: 55.5. In four shots at rival Colorado, Colorado State coach Mike Bobo is yet to as much as cover while losing by an average of 21.5 points per game. Buffaloes quarterback Steven Montez has given Bobo fits the past two seasons and now returns for his senior year. Guess: Colorado minus-13.

Kent State plus-25 at Arizona State, over/under: 61. Would truly prefer to have nothing to do with this game. As an undermanned team traveling three time zones west, the Zips are unappealing. But so are the Sun Devils considering they’re breaking in a freshman quarterback and play at a slow pace not beneficial to covering big numbers. Guess: Kent State plus-25.

SEC

Texas State plus-35.5 at Texas A&M, over/under: 35.5. It’s too bad these two teams are playing each other because they both come into the season as bet-on teams. The Aggies have enough talent to cover this spread, but it might not be wise to count on them caring to with a game at Clemson on deck and the possibility of starters resting in the second half. Lean: Texas State plus-35.5

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.