College football by the odds: Vegas picks and preview of Week 9

AP Photo/Paul Vernon

Ohio State safety Damon Webb, right, tries to stop Oklahoma running back Rodney Anderson during an NCAA college football game Saturday, Sept. 10, 2017, in Columbus, Ohio. Oklahoma won 31-16.

By Case Keefer (contact)

Saturday, Oct. 28, 2017 | 2 a.m.

Many of the most popular handicapping techniques hold no bearing on the actual betting line.

“Revenge” is chief among them. Fans, analysts and gamblers alike make picks every week based on a “revenge game” angle that bookmakers don’t even consider.

That’s because not only would the value of revenge would be impossible to quantify, if it’s worth anything at all, but the idea itself is completely subjective. Take Week 9’s biggest game as a prime example.

Ohio State is the team with the r-word most attached to its name going into a top-six showdown against Penn State as a 6.5-point favorite today. The Nittany Lions handed the Buckeyes their only regular season loss a year ago, and Ohio State coach Urban Meyer surprisingly admitted payback was a motivating factor.

From another perspective, Penn State is the team that should be playing the Liam Neeson role with something to prove after a devastating slight. The Nittany Lions were left out of last year’s College Football Playoff for the Buckeyes despite holding a victory over them and winning the Big Ten Conference.

Penn State coach James Franklin has been just as open about revenge as Meyer, particularly going into last week’s 42-13 win over Michigan as 7.5-point favorites. The truth is, some theory of revenge can be applied to the vast majority of games once college football reaches conference play.

But there’s a reason those booking the action don’t care — it’s best left as a narrative device or a fan base rallying point, not a major betting factor.

Check below to see find Week 9 of college football by the odds, which features a preview and pick of the 10 biggest games weekly to go with extra selections. The blog had a terrible 6-10 showing last week to drop the season record to 60-65-1. Picks are labeled with three separate confidence categories, and lines are the best available in Las Vegas at the time of publication.

AP Photo/Michael Thomas

Oklahoma State minus-7.5 at West Virginia, over/under: 73.5; 9 a.m. on ABC

It’s beginning to look a lot like midseason college football when the west coast’s weekly wakeup call is a Big 12 shootout.

The total on the Cowboys trip to take on the Mountaineers is Saturday’s second largest — behind only Connecticut vs. Missouri — as the teams combine to field quarterbacks holding the national leads in most categories. Oklahoma State senior Mason Rudolph sits on top with 2,650 passing yards, and West Virginia junior Will Grier ranks first with 27 touchdowns.

The betting market might not weigh in heavily until gamblers stumble to the window in a morning daze. The line hasn’t moved much throughout the week, with sports books attracting a split write of tickets.

Guess: West Virginia plus-7.5
AP Photo/Chris Knight

Penn State plus-6.5 at Ohio State, over/under: 57; 12:30 p.m. on Fox

Score one for the proverbial Joes over the Pros.

The betting public was all over Penn State in last week’s win over Michigan, which got its share of backing for the higher-stakes gamblers. It’s now as if the recreational players are rolling over their winnings to back the Nittany Lions again in another massive showdown a week later.

Penn State is reportedly drawing three-fourths of the action in its first spot as an underdog since last year’s Rose Bowl, which it lost 52-49 to USC but covered plus-7 on the betting line. It’s not hard to figure out the fascination with Penn State considering its now 14-3 against the spread in its last 17 games, and even has Meyer singing its praises.

Meyer referred to Penn State running back Saquon Barkley, who had 161 yards and three touchdowns against Michigan, as “probably, maybe” the best all-purpose player he’s faced throughout his career.

Lean: Under 57 points
AP Photo/Mark Humphrey

Georgia minus-14 vs. Florida in Jacksonville, Fla., over/under: 43.5; 12:30 p.m. on CBS

If there were any impediment that could slow Georgia’s freight train of a season so far, it would seem to be Florida.

And it’s certainly not because of anything the Gators have shown this year, but rather because of their dominating history in the World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party rivalry. For reasons unknown, Georgia rarely brings its best against Florida, which has won three straight in the series and 21 of the last 27 dating back to 1990, years before any players on the current roster were born.

Georgia’s Florida curse might as well be confirmed as real if it loses this year, with the money line currently implying only a 16 percent chance. This is the biggest favorite Georgia has been against Florida since the 1980s.

The Gators enter on a two-game losing streak — albeit by a total of three points to LSU and Texas A&M — while the Bulldogs have won by an average of 31 points per game in its last five contests since a close call in a 20-19 win at Notre Dame.

Lean: Georgia minus-14
AP Photo/Charlie Neibergall

TCU minus-7 at Iowa State, over/under: 48.5; 12:30 p.m. on ESPN2

Sports bettors can be a tough crowd to impress.

Iowa State has not only won but also covered in three straight games by an average of 24 points. Pollsters paid their respects, putting the Cyclones in the top 25 for the first time in 12 years to make this their first home game between ranked teams in 15 years.

Gamblers are still not buying. Action has forced bookmakers to add a half-point to the spread since opening at TCU minus-6.5 earlier in the week.

Perhaps this is just a tough game to digest considering the Big 12 is supposed to be all about offense. The Horned Frogs’ and Cyclones’ offenses have held their own, but it’s defense that’s made them unlikely conference championship contenders as the short over/under would attest.

They’re both one of 31 teams in the nation holding Football Bowl Subdivision opponents to less than 5 yards per play. TCU completely shuts down opposing run games starting with a defensive front featuring Ben Banogu and Chris Bradley, while Iowa State’s pass rush behind Joel Lanning and JaQuon Bailey might be its biggest strength.

Guess: Iowa State plus-7
AP Photo/Gerry Broome

North Carolina State plus-7.5 at Notre Dame, over/under: 58.5; 12:30 p.m. on NBC

A preseason search at several sports books around town would have yielded game of the year point spreads on nine different Week 9 games.

NC State at Notre Dame was not one of them, and yet there’s an argument to be made that it’s turned out as the most significant game. Both teams are in the College Football Playoff conversation, but one will bow out with a second loss.

A big reason both teams are more of a contender than expected — Notre Dame went down from 60- to 20-to-1 to win the national championship, and NC State from 200- to 100-to-1 — is their success in winning turnover battles. They’re both in the top 10 nationally in turnover margin.

NC State junior quarterback Ryan Finley holds the nation’s longest streak for pass attempts, 313, without an interception. It won’t last forever, but neither will the Fighting Irish’s fortunate fumble recovery rate of 74 percent.

Notre Dame claimed both fumbles in a 49-14 dismantling of USC as 4-point favorites last week that has everyone buzzing. NC State may have enjoyed an even more beneficial week, as it was at home resting on a bye.

Guess: NC State plus-7.5
AP Photo/Carlos Osorio

Michigan State minus-2.5 at Northwestern, over/under: 40.5; 12:30 p.m. on ESPN

Michigan State went from having a large portion of sports books sleeping for the first 54 minutes of its game last week to howling for the final six minutes.

The Spartans’ three-game win streak, and 4-2 against the spread record, made them a popular pick against Indiana. They paid off the support, albeit not in the most stylish fashion.

The Hoosiers controlled most of a field-goal fest that had the score sitting at 9-3 in the fourth quarter before the Spartans scored two late touchdowns to reward their backers. Northwestern nearly did the opposite and burned those who bet on it before pulling out a 17-10 win at Iowa as 3-point underdogs.

Those who bet on either of these teams must know they’re not going to deliver any offensively thrilling showcases. They’ll provide plenty on defense, though.

The Spartans have the third-best defense in the country, according to the S&P metric, with personnel to slow a variety of offenses. Northwestern’s defense, meanwhile, is right outside the country’s top 10 in stuffing opponents with 201 yards surrendered by tackles for losses.

Lean: Michigan State minus-2.5
AP Photo/John Raoux

Mississippi State minus-1 at Texas A&M, over/under: 56; 4:15 p.m. on ESPN

The Bulldogs and the Aggies serve a reminder to one of the most important rules of handicapping — don’t overreact to a game or two.

Football fans were already naming Texas A&M’s next coach after the Aggies blew a 31-point lead in a 45-44 loss at UCLA as 7-point underdogs in Week 1. Texas A&M has only failed to cover in one game since, a 24-14 win over Nichols State as 37.5-point favorites the next week, and pulled off an upright upset over Florida in its last contest.

Mississippi State was similarly left for dead after it was outscored 80-13 in road games at Auburn and Georgia last month. The Bulldogs have come back to cash in back-to-back blowouts in their favor over BYU and Kentucky.

Quarterback Nick Fitzgerald racked up seven touchdowns and more than 700 yards in those two wins. Texas A&M also believes it’s figured out its quarterback situation since losing starter Nick Starkel against UCLA with a Fitzgerald-like dual threat in Kellen Mond.

Mond’s rushing numbers, however, pale in comparison to Fitzgerald’s with the latter gaining 7 yards per carry to the former’s 4 yards per carry.

Play: Mississippi State minus-1
AP Photo/Rainier Ehrhardt

Georgia Tech plus-14 at Clemson, over/under: 49; 5 p.m. on ABC

Most bettors typically turn on a top team after they suffer their first loss of the season.

There must be an exception for the defending national champions. The Tigers are seeing no shortage of bets come in on them against the Yellow Jackets in their first appearance since tripping up in a 27-24 loss at Syracuse as 24-point favorites.

Not even against a Georgia Tech team that's extended the nation’s longest covering streak. The Yellow Jackets have now beaten the number in 10 straight games.

The streak appropriately started the last time they were a two-touchdown underdog, when they won 30-20 at Virginia Tech late last season. They’ve been virtually unstoppable ever since — with only two outright losses by a total of two points — behind a run game averaging 6 yards per attempt starring quarterback TaQuon Marshall and running back KirVonte Benson.

But the triple-option attack could potentially meet its match in a Clemson run defense that’s one of 10 in the nation giving up less than 3 yards per carry against FBS teams.

Lean: Georgia Tech plus-14
AP Photo/Young Kwak

Washington State minus-3 at Arizona, over/under: 64.5; 6:30 p.m. on Pac-12 Network

The beloved “Pac-12 After Dark” moniker that’s caught on to describe the craziness that’s occurred when explosive west coast offenses clash over the last few years might be too tame for this game.

This is more like Pac-12 After Dark X-Rated, because these teams’ two quarterback’s might be the nation’s biggest x-factors. Arizona has yet to lose, though it failed to cover in beating California 45-44 in overtime as closing 5-point favorites last week, since turning to sophomore Khalil Tate under center.

Tate has rushed for more than 16 yards per carry and seven touchdowns in his three starts. Washington State may roster his passing equivalent.

Senior Luke Falk is the nation’s active career leading passer with 13,376 yards and 111 touchdowns. In past years, the expectation might have been for players like Tate and Falk to star in a game that might hit the century mark in total points, but both these defenses have made big improvements this season.

The Cougars are inside the nation’s top 10 in giving up 4.2 yards per play. Arizona sits at 41st in surrendering 5.2 yards per play, but that’s a lot better than last year’s 6 yards per play.

Guess: Washington State minus-3
AP Photo/Rick Scuteri

USC minus-3.5 at Arizona State, over/under: 58.5; 7:45 p.m. on ESPN

Before the season, Arizona State and Arizona were the two longest shots to win the Pac-12 South division by the odds.

Now they’re a pair of wins at home tonight away from standing tied atop the division and controlling their own destinies to reach the Pac-12 championship game with conference play more than half completed. The two moneylines on tonight’s games imply a not-insignificant 18 percent chance it happens with Arizona State saddled with the slightly tougher challenge.

It’s just that no one would know that to be the case by looking at recent betting results. After last week’s blowout 49-14 loss at Notre Dame as 4-point underdogs, USC has now failed to cover in six straight.

Conversely, Arizona State has beaten the number in four straight with the latest a 30-10 pasting of Utah as 10-point underdogs. Like its in-state rivals, the Sun Devils have done it partly because of a renewed focus on their run game.

Running backs Kalen Ballage and Demario Richard combined for 30 carries for 168 yards against the Utes. USC, on the other hand, employs one of the most balanced offenses in the nation with a 52/48 play calling split in favor of the passing game behind Sam Darnold over the running game headed by Ronald Jones II.

Guess: Over 58.5 points
Extra points

Arkansas plus-3 at Ole Miss Arkansas coach Bret Bielema is dangerously close to losing his job, but he’s still at an advantage against Ole Miss interim head Matt Luke. Quarterback Shea Patterson was the only thing the Rebels had going for them, and he’s now injured.

Wake Forest plus-3 vs. Louisville Statistically, Demon Deacons have the best defense the Cardinals have seen since Clemson dismantled them earlier in the season. They’re also offered at a value price after a disappointing 38-24 loss at Georgia Tech as 3.5-point underdogs last week.

North Texas minus-10.5 vs. Old Dominion Simultaneously buying low on the Mean Green and selling high on the Monarchs. North Texas played its worst game last week, encountering a Florida Atlantic buzz saw in a 69-31 loss as 3.5-point underdogs, while Old Dominion played its best, hanging with Western Kentucky in a 35-31 loss as 6.5-point underdogs.

Wyoming plus-2 vs. New Mexico Cowboys are almost an auto-take as a home underdog against comparable opposition considering their advantage with playing at the highest elevation in college football. Wyoming has sorted out early-season troubles to cover four in a row, winning all but last week at Boise State as 16-point underdogs.

Texas Tech plus-20 at Oklahoma Too many points for a team that can score with anyone and holds its own on defense this year. Oklahoma is struggling more than Texas Tech defensively in a four-game against the spread losing streak.